A bullish bull market is awaiting the start. The arbitrage model will no longer exist.
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With the macro adjustment and control of China's aluminum industry in 2004, Shanghai Aluminum entered a long-term decline, falling from a high of around 20,000 to around 15,000, even if copper rose sharply in the second half of last year. Aluminum is also a pattern of maintaining a range of shocks. In December last year, the macro-control of the aluminum industry was drawing to a close, so Shanghai Aluminum unwittingly emerged a rare premium, and continued to the present, and under the strong lead of LME Aluminum, it began a wave of attacks. Quotes, so that we have to pay attention to aluminum again, because it will be perhaps a replica of the current strong performance of copper. Although the Central Bank has increased the housing loan rate and will regulate the real estate in real terms, it varies from region to region. Therefore, in some regions, real estate will surely continue to rise in the next two to three years. Moreover, with the upsurge in the purchase of houses in recent years, the renovation of the hot will bring greater business opportunities for aluminum. The recently released China and February aluminum production data show that China’s aluminum production increased by 17.4% in February from the same period of last year, while the total production in January-February increased by 16.4% year-on-year. The production data shows that aluminum prices are high in the international market after entering the new year. Under the stimulus, domestic production began to increase the release of production capacity. The rebound in demand for alumina is evident. The price of imported alumina has approached the level of US$460-470. Traders report that alumina inventory of manufacturers and ports is at a low level, and there is room for price upwards. With the gradual increase of raw material prices, the growth rate of domestic aluminum production began to accelerate again, reflecting that producers are more optimistic about the spot demand for aluminum under current price levels, while the increase in demand is mainly due to Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum. After the price ratio is at a relatively low level, the domestic aluminum spot has increased the demand for imported aluminum. The global market for aluminum used in the automotive industry has great potential for annual growth. Currently, the global automotive industry consumes about 6 million tons of aluminum each year, of which two-thirds are recycled aluminum. Many auto manufacturers are now trying to use aluminum as a raw material for automobiles. At present, the amount of aluminum used in auto parts has reached 80%. Although there are still many problems to be solved in the application and development of automotive aluminum, it is not easy to completely replace steel with automotive aluminum. However, the automotive aluminum market has great potential, and the continuous increase in the amount of aluminum for automobiles has become unstoppable. foregone conclusion. With the opening of China's auto market, it will bring huge demand for aluminum. The global economic growth rate will slow in 2005, but it is estimated that the total consumption of primary aluminum in the world will be close to 31.6 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over the same period of the previous year, and due to the current global aluminum tax due to China’s export of aluminum, the current aluminum supply is strained. It is expected that in 2005 the global primary aluminum market will continue to be in short supply, given that the US dollar weak consolidation situation is unlikely to change in the short-to-medium term, and primary aluminum prices will remain strong. As China's macro-control of the aluminum industry in 2004 suppressed prices, 80% of aluminum plants suffered losses. At present, many aluminum plants have been closed or diverted. Therefore, the macro regulation of aluminum is nearing completion. In the future, the aluminum industry will be a pattern of oligopoly, which also means that the market price will adopt the alliance agreement, that is, may be the final say by Chinalco shares. According to the survey, the production cost of aluminum is now around 15,500. Therefore, the current price gap is bound to increase. The recently announced macro-control measures, due to their softer intensity, show that the management's cautious attitude towards the regulation of certain industries. Judging from the performance of the Shanghai aluminum futures price, the market funds are expected to enhance the soft landing due to the macro-control, and are making positive responses accordingly. This week, Shanghai Aluminum’s main contract finished lower in June, but it took a long shadow on Friday and penetrated the 30-day moving average. Therefore, there is room for upward movement. The constant increase in volume shows the recognition of the market. On the Japanese K-line chart, the average line shows a long array, and the monthly K-line is also a four-on-one upside pattern combination. Of course, in the near future, with the correction of commodities, especially the decline of copper, it may affect the trend of aluminum. But aluminum will be a potential investment category and will also be the beginning of a wave of bull markets. Even in the future, with the rise in the price of aluminum futures, the decline in the future price of copper may result in the situation where aluminum prices are comparable to copper prices. At that time, various aluminum and copper arbitrage models will no longer exist.