Cement prices fell slightly last week and may continue to decline in the future

At the end of the year, the cement market was in short supply, and all cement companies were struggling to maintain a stable price. They hoped to spend the winter safely, but such an idea failed. Last week, the average national cement price fell slightly, mainly due to the price drop in Anhui, Yungui and other places. The East China region does a good job synergistically, and it may limit production in advance in the event of weak demand. However, due to the further decline in cement sales in central China, it is not possible to rule out further declines in prices, and the downward pressure remains high.

East China: In addition to fluctuations in price in a few regions, the East China region has remained stable, with corporate inventories remaining at medium to high levels. Enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions originally planned to conduct large-scale production overhauls around January 20, but the current market demand is declining Looking at the rise in stocks, it may be possible to stop production in advance. If not, it may lead to the stabilization of the price stability that previous companies strive to maintain. It is reported that prices in Zaozhuang, Shandong Province, may have to be lowered, mainly due to the situation in Lianyungang. The condition of power cuts and blackouts in Rizhao remained the same, but due to the fact that the demand was flat and the stock was still full, the price situation was temporarily stable. On the 21st, the reporter learned from the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cement Association that the average price of cement in Shanghai last week was 435 yuan/ton, and there was no change for the time being. According to different plans for stopping the kiln in December, the general kiln shutdown period was 10-15. day. China Southern Building Materials Southern Cement officials said that by the end of the year, Shanghai cement prices will stabilize at the current price level. Due to the gradual weakening of supply and demand pressure and demand in Anhui Province, all the prices raised in the previous period have been pulled back.

North China: The Beijing-Tianjin region has a weak demand and prices remain stable. The transaction price in the SME market in Tianjin has been reduced by 5-10 yuan/ton. In addition, Tianjin Tianrui Cement's annual output of 4 million tons grinding station began production, and sent samples to the outside, but the specific pricing policy has not yet been finalized, is expected to be introduced after the year, temporarily has no effect on the market. The price of cement in Hebei Province is in a narrow state of consolidation. Most of the small grinding stations have been discontinued, and some areas have begun to implement winter storage. C32.5 ex-factory price is 255 yuan/ton, P. O42.5 at 290 yuan / ton. Since December, Shijiazhuang Xingtai and its surrounding areas have descended one after another, with a total decrease of nearly 50 yuan/ton. Many companies have stopped production due to the bank's production. The overall stability in Shanxi Province, at present, only some of the major manufacturers normal production, the rest of the shutdown maintenance. After entering the Inner Mongolia area in December, a small number of manufacturers began to store in winter, and most manufacturers will finalize the winter storage policy in the near future.

Northeast China: Jilin and Heilongjiang have entered the winter storage. Some manufacturers in Liaoning Province have started to declare winter storage since December, but the difference between the winter reserve price and the previous offer has been modest, with a general drop of around RMB 20/t. The enterprises in Dalian and Fushun said that they may not implement Dongkuo this year and have a smooth transition to next year.

Northwest: Shaanxi as a whole stabilised last week, with individual small plants down 10 yuan/ton or so. Some manufacturers already have plans to stop production, and large companies' winter storage prices have not yet been introduced. The market in Ningxia and Gansu remained stable, and some manufacturers stopped production. The specific start time was not determined. Qinghai winter storage price is stable and there is no change. Due to the weather, the downstream demand in Xinjiang was sluggish, and the overall market shipments were poor and inventory remained high.

Southwest: The market price of Chuanyu is running low, and the profit rate of the manufacturers has been greatly reduced. The manufacturers in the southwest region have shown little response to the listing of cement in Southwest China. In Guiyang, demand for the market dropped drastically. Conch lowered its low-grade cement by RMB 30/t on the 20th, and other companies adjusted downwards, causing prices to drop in Guiyang. The price of cement in Dali and Lijiang in Yunnan was lowered by 20-30 yuan/ton.

Central China: The overall market in Henan is stable, with some small plants quoting lower, but the impact on the market is smaller; downstream demand has slowed down, and manufacturers’ trading profits have increased. At present, the price of cement in Yongzhou, Hunan, has dropped somewhat. The cement market has not shown signs of recovery. Cement companies are preparing to enter the traditional off-season and begin to “winter”. As the Spring Festival approaches, the cement demand in Yongzhou will further decline, and the cement sales volume of the company will also be significantly reduced, and the cement price may further decline. However, it is also very gratifying that Hunan's market synergy effect is good. In December, Hunan's cement companies will stop for 5 days in order to ease the pressure of insufficient market demand. Demand in Hubei has continued to slump, market transactions have been normal, and prices have remained stable.

The interpretation of important relevant information last week:

1. Next year, fixed asset investment growth is expected to be 20% to 25%

On December 19th, Bi Jiyao, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, was quoted as saying that next year China's exports will face greater pressure; investment in fixed assets will not show large growth, and the increase is expected to be between 20% and 25%. If no measures are taken, there is a risk of a declining macroeconomic situation.

2. Ministry of Finance: “Environmental Tax” is Expected to Be Launched during “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” Jia Kang, director of the Ministry of Finance’s Institute of Fiscal Science, said at the end of the week that China’s “Environmental Tax” during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period is expected to start environmental taxes, and corporate income tax will be adjusted accordingly.

3. The National Development and Reform Commission said that the National Conference on the Development and Reform of National Infrastructure Support for Infrastructure Construction will be closed in Beijing on the 17th. The meeting proposed that next year we must focus on optimizing the investment structure and continue to maintain a reasonable investment scale. In terms of investment, the meeting pointed out that in 2012, the central government's investment must first give priority to safeguarding the country's key projects for continued construction, especially the completion of the project, and ensure the timely completion of production.

4. Power cuts have become the driving force behind the surge in demand for diesel fuel. From 2003 to the present, diesel shortages have frequently appeared in the early winter season. Shi Wei, director of the Industrial Division of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Institute of Economic System and Management, pointed out that local governments have been rushing to limit electricity consumption in order to complete energy-saving emission reduction tasks. In order to maintain normal electricity production, enterprises can only switch to diesel power generation, leading to the use of diesel. Abnormal increase in volume.

5. Environmental Protection “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” Released Three Major Measures to Promote Emission Reduction The reporter learned from the Chinese government’s website that the State Council has issued the “Notice of the State Council on Issuing the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Environmental Protection”. The "planning" proposes to promote the reduction of major pollutants by increasing structural adjustment, accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, focusing on reducing chemical oxygen demand and ammonia-nitrogen emissions, and increasing the intensity of carbon dioxide* and nitrogen oxide emission reduction measures. .