Chinese aluminum producers may instead become Trump's aluminum tariff winners
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Now, with Trump's announcement of raising the tariff on aluminum alloys in Turkey, the result is that the aluminum market, which was already very likely to have a small supply shortage this year, is now more worried about the risk of supply disruption. RUSAL produced 1.87 million tons of aluminum in the first half of this year and is a major supplier in the US and many other countries around the world. According to reports, if the agreement is not reached to allow the United States to lift the sanctions against RUSAL, then RUSAL will have to suspend production or store the output. The Trump administration has given Rusal's US customers a deadline of October 23 to terminate their business with RUSAL. If there is no agreement to extend or amend this deadline, the aluminum market may face severe supply disruptions, as RUSAL's output is kept out of the global market. Trump's aluminum tariffs are also hitting the US aluminum producers they wanted to protect, and Alcoa is exempt from tariffs because it imports aluminum from its Canadian-owned plants. Alcoa said in July that it would generate up to $14 million in additional monthly expenses, mainly due to tariffs on aluminum imports from Canada. If RUSAL is largely excluded from the global aluminum market, if the strike does cause supply disruptions, then few producers can benefit from it. China is the main beneficiary? Chinese aluminum producers do have idle capacity. If they can avoid the effects of some pollution control measures, they will be able to increase production. According to data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on July 20, global aluminum production in June was 5.321 million tons, down 2.2% from the previous month. However, official Chinese data show that China's aluminum output in June increased to 2.83 million tons, an increase of 1.6% over the previous month. China's aluminum production accounts for more than half of the world's total production. According to Reuters' calculations based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, aluminum production in June was about 94,000 tons per day, the second highest in history. Chinese aluminum smelters are responding to rising domestic aluminum prices. On August 10th, Shanghai Aluminum was up 5% from the recent low in mid-July and closed at RMB 14,520 (US$2,110) per ton. 
The United States imposed tariffs on aluminum imports from the beginning of June, and it seems that it has not yet had an impact on China's aluminum exports. According to preliminary trade data released on August 8, unburned aluminum and aluminum exports soared to the second highest in July, reaching 519,000 tons. This is 18% higher than the same period in 2017, and the export volume so far this year is 13.6% higher than the same period of the previous year. This data does not show that China's aluminum industry is facing difficulties. The main problem for manufacturers is how to maximize output in line with the new round of environmental regulations. However, newer and more energy-efficient refineries may help China produce more aluminum products at lower cost while reducing unit emissions. When Trump first introduced a steel-aluminum tariff, he said on Twitter that "the trade war is good, (we) can easily win." For aluminum, Trump’s measures have so far disrupted the supply chain and have angered the largest US manufacturers, raising costs in the US and elsewhere, which may have made his number one target for China. .
