Early Metal Assessment (March 28)
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The international metal trading parameters COMEX market conditions opened higher on the month with lower closes and gains and dropped positions 0503 146.40 146.80 145.70 146.05 +0.10.90 146.70 145.80 146.15 +0.25.90 146.25 144.85 145.45 +0.10.30 145.30 145.10 145.10 +0.15.80 145.30 144.00 144.80 +0.25.60 143.60 143.50 143.50 +0.30.65 142.40 141.20 142.20 +0.35.70 140.70 140.70 140.70 +0.40.10 139.10 139.10 139.10 +0.30 769 US CFTC Copper Market Structure Non-commercial positions Business Open Positions Reported Total Open Positions Unreported Positions Total Positions Speculatives Net Multi Dates Long Shorts Long Shorts Long Shorts 2004-12-21-12-28-01-04-01-11-01-18-01-25-02-01-02-08-02-15-02-22-03-01-03-08-03-15-03-22 LME Intra-Circle Trading Review · Reuters commentary LME Market: Close COMEX Copper: Copper futures closed modestly higher on Monday as speculators decided to cover short positions before the end of the previous season. One trader said: "Today's trading activity Mainly fund-led, more from technical transactions, not trade However, the trading range is narrow because the holiday season has just ended. "The markets in New York and London were closed on Friday for the Easter holiday. The London market continued to close on Monday. The May copper closed up 0.10 cents at 1.4545 US dollars per pound. The trading range is 1.4485-1.4665. The spot March copper also closed up 0.10 cents at $1.4605 per pound. Others closed higher at 0.15-0.35 cents. Economic news Japan's unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in February, worse than expected. Foreign media reported on March 29. Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced that the country’s unemployment rate rose from 4.5% to 4.7% in February, indicating a deterioration in the job market. Previously, the market expected Japan’s unemployment rate to remain flat at 4.5% in February. In early March, the Japanese government had expressed optimism about the economic outlook and said that even if the unemployment rate of young workers is relatively high, the economy is still improving. Unseasoned Eurozone January Current Account Deficit of 7.9 Billion Euros March 23, ECB Announces Data Reveals Seasonally Adjusted Eurozone Current Account Surplus in January From 2.8 Billion Euro in December to 3.2 Billion EUR. The surplus of 8.7 billion euros in merchandise trade in January and 2.3 billion euros in service trade surplus was partly offset by the current transfer deficit of 7.8 billion euros. Without seasonal adjustment, the current account deficit was 7.9 billion euros in January, while the current account surplus was 7.3 billion euros in December. The direct and indirect investment in the financial project account for January was a net outflow of 31.2 billion euros, with a net inflow of 43.9 billion euros in December. Direct and indirect investments for the 12 months ended in January represented a net inflow of 2.9 billion euros, and a net inflow of 20.3 billion euros in the previous 12 months. The total current account surplus for the 12 months ended in January was 37.8 billion euros, or about 0.5% of GDP. International Financial Markets Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite London FTSE Frankfurt DAX Paris CAC40 10485.65 +42.78 1992.52 +1.46 - - - - - - USD/CHF EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Dollar Index 1.2051 1.2056 1.2876 1.2881 107.34 107.39 1.8660 1.8666 84.51 0.34 Gold crude oil CRB Baltic dry goods index 425.75 426.50 54.00 -0.84 307.36 +0.48 4685 0 The global stock market US stocks fell after the end of the oil price - Dow Jones finished higher 43 points higher than the end of the day The stocks of blue chip stocks rose, the stock market rose in three weeks After the decline, oil prices fell today, attracting investors back to the market, Dow Jones finished the day. However, the market retreated in late trading and failed to hold up gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 42.78 points or 0.41% to 10485.65. The Nasdaq index rose 1.46 points or 0.07% to 1992.52. The S&P 500 Index rose 2.86 points or 0.24% to 1174.28. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 0.38 points or 0.09% to 415.50. In the last 30 minutes of trading, the indexes were all back to file. U.S. stocks continued to fall for the past three weeks due to concerns about inflationary signs and rising interest rates. On Thursday, the stock market closed mixed. Last Friday was an Easter holiday and financial markets were closed. New York's May crude oil fell 79 cents to close at 54.05 US dollars a barrel. Investors also noted that a private investment group had acquired 10.4 billion U.S. dollars from SunGard Data Systems, a financial technology company. The transaction also includes a debt of 500 million U.S. dollars. SunGard's share price rose 9% and it also pulled up other technology stocks. In the rally on Monday, the Dow Jones 30-share constituent stocks rose 25 points. In particular, after the recent selling pressures of technology and financial stocks, there has been a big increase today. Among technology stocks, Intel (INTC-US; Intel) rose 0.12 to 23.30 US dollars, up 1%, as the leading chip stocks. Yahoo! (YHOO-US; Yahoo) rose 0.80 to 32.21 US dollars, or 3%, Goldman Sachs said that the company's quarterly report is strong, and recently announced to buy back its own stock of 3 billion US dollars, is now a good opportunity to buy the stock. Other Internet stocks also rose, pushing up the company’s online stock index by 1.25%. Among financial stocks, Citigroup (C-US; Citigroup) rose 0.29 to 44.81 US dollars, American Express (AXP-US; American Express) rose 0.94 to 51.22 US dollars, both higher, also supported the Dow Jones index. In terms of falling stocks, Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND-US) fell 2.39 to 5.84 US dollars, tumbled 27%. The news pointed out that the company's lung cancer drugs failed to meet its survival goals in clinical trials, which caused significant bad news. Pharmaceutical wholesaler AmerisourceBergen (ABC-US) fell $7.11 to $54.00, a decrease of 10%. The company warned that due to inventory pressure, the fiscal year 2005 and 2006 fiscal year earnings will be lower than expected. The rise and fall of the stock market is bad. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of decliners was slightly more than the number of risers, with a turnover of 1.06 billion shares. In the Nasdaq stock market, the number of decliners was also slightly higher than the number of risers, with a turnover of 1.21 billion shares. Bond Market U.S. Treasury bonds closed lower on the 28th. On March 28, U.S. Treasury bonds closed lower on the 28th and the market was quiet. Long-term U.S. government bonds led the decline. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields expanded by 1 basis point to 76 basis points over the 24th. The U.S. bond market was closed on Good Friday on the 25th. Around 15:45 GMT (20:45 GMT), the 10-year U.S. government bond fell 13/32 to 94 30/32, yielding 4.64%, much higher than the critical level of 4.60% that broke through last week. The 30-year US Treasury note fell 23/32 to 107 3/32, yielding 4.89%. The 5-year government bond fell 6/32 to 98 17/32, yielding 4.33%. The three-year government bond fell 3/32 to 98 4/32, yielding 4.07%. The two-year bond fell 2/32 to 99 2/32, yielding 3.88%. According to David Ging, former interest rate strategist at Credit Suisse in Boston, there is no economic data for the direction of US Treasury bonds, and the market is quiet. At the same time, people's nervousness before the release of the employment and inflation report prompted the US Treasury bond to go down. However, Jason Evans, co-head of government bond trading at Deutsche Bank in New York, said that overall, the initial market trading this week was relatively quiet, and the market's decline was not stimulated by practical factors. U.S. Treasury bonds sold by long-term investors, such as fund managers, increased, and some mortgage banks also sold some US Treasury bonds in early trading. The Commerce Department will announce February’s personal income report on March 31. Traders will focus on core price index data to measure individual consumer spending levels to determine if inflationary pressures are rising. The Labor Department will announce March non-farm employment report on April 1. The market is generally expected that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States will increase by 22.5 million in March, which is lower than the increase of 262,000 in February. Foreign exchange market New York foreign exchange ─ anticipates higher economic growth than Japan and the European Union dollar is expected to rise US data this week will show that the US economy is growing faster than Japan and the European Union, the US dollar against the Japanese Yen rose to a five-month high, and the US dollar rose against the euro . The U.S. dollar against the U.S. dollar and the U.S. dollar also rose against the Swiss franc, and it is expected that the U.S.’s new employment in March will exceed 200,000 for the second consecutive month, providing US dollar support. Other reports may indicate that Japan’s industrial production has declined, and that the unemployment rate in Germany has risen to a new high after the war. Analysts said that the dollar still has broad room for growth. This week's data may indicate that the U.S. economy is much stronger than Japan and the EU. At 05:00 Beijing time, the US dollar rose to 107.21 yen, and at the end of March 25 it was 106.40. The U.S. dollar also rose to 1.2891 against 1 euro, and ended on 25 March with 1.2955. Today's trading was relatively light, as London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong's financial markets were closed. The light volume may have exaggerated the dollar's gains. Analysts estimate that in 2005, the U.S. economic growth rate was 3.8%. The European Central Bank lowered its 2005 economic growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.6% this month. Japan’s manufacturing production may decline for the second consecutive month in February due to the slowdown of Japanese electronics exports. The Japanese government will release manufacturing production data on March 30, which is expected to decline by 1.1%. The number of unemployed in Germany in March may reach a record high of 4.88 million in February, an increase of 75,000. The data is scheduled to be announced on March 31. It is expected that the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) may abandon the gradual increase in interest rates and also support the US dollar. Last week, the U.S. central bank raised the interest rate for overnight deposits of banks from 2.5% to 2.75%, and the dollar also rose. Interest rate futures show that traders expect the Fed to increase its interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at 28% on May 3. On February 11th, traders completely did not expect this. The Fed said last week that inflationary pressures have risen. The conversation sparked investor expectations that the central bank will increase interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at this year's meeting. This move will be a big increase in the past five years. Analysts said that US interest rates are expected to continue to rise, and interest rate differentials are favorable to the US dollar at this moment. The US 10-year bond fell, and it is expected that since 2000, the Fed will increase interest rate target by 0.5 percentage point for the first time, which is a bearish bond market. At 06:00 Beijing time, the coupon rate was 4%. The February 2015 bonds fell about 3/8 points to 94 15/16, and the yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.64%. Energy Market Crude Oil -- NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower in quiet trading, profit-taking pressured New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures closed lower on quiet trading Monday, the market after three days of Easter holiday After reopening, the dollar’s ​​strength triggered some speculative profits. NYMEX crude oil futures settled at approximately US$0.79, or 1.4%, at US$54.05 per barrel, and the intraday trading ranged from US$53.60-54.65. The period was approximately 3%. On the 17th of this month, it hit a record high of 57.60. Today's resistance is at 56.50 US dollars, while support is at 53.40. "Today's market conditions are dull," said Energy Merchant analyst Shri Lei. The London International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) closed for Easter on Monday. In the relatively quiet market conditions, the dollar rose to a five-month high against the yen, hit a six-week high against the euro, Swiss franc and the pound, as investors expect the United States to accelerate the rate hike. The market for last week BP The fear of a Texas refinery explosion threatening to affect gasoline output has subsided. The explosion killed 15 people but most of the plant's operations were unaffected. The gasoline period fell about 2.65 cents, or 1.7%, in April, and settled at 1.5727 per gallon. U.S. trading intraday at 1.555-1.584 Resistance is at 1.608 USD with support at 1.565. April heating oil futures settled at little change, at $1.5476 per gallon, down 0.08 cents, intraday between 1.5250-1.555. Resistance at 1.6175, support at 1.50. In the precious metals market, March 28 reported that due to investor bargain hunting support, COMEX gold futures rallied higher on the 28th despite the fact that the US dollar rose further after the long weekend holiday. On the 25th, US financial markets were closed on Good Friday. New York’s April gold futures closed up $1.20 at $426 an ounce. Analysts said that gold is consolidating around the level of $425 per ounce, which is about a 5% backlog of gold from a recent high. The long weekend is over. Afterwards, the opening of metal futures was mixed, and investors were cautious after the Federal Reserve raised its interest rate on March 22 and triggered a rising dollar. Analysts pointed out that a series of economic data this week may affect the trend of the US dollar. The strong US economic data is expected to provide support for the US dollar. If factory orders, consumer confidence, and fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data are weak, it may lead to a reversal of the US dollar. Silver is further selling pressure. but still Lows. May Qishou to $ 691 an ounce, down 2.8 cents last week the contract of silver fallen nearly 47 cents.