Machinery industry: steady and declining market demand remains sluggish
â– Market demand remains sluggish, product growth is reduced, and growth is slowing. â– The industry is clearly differentiated, and the profits of robots and smart manufacturing, automobiles and agricultural machinery have decreased year-on-year. â– The economic operation indicators were not as good as the same period of last year, and the economic efficiency growth rate declined, making it difficult to upgrade. â– There has been an improvement in the downturn in investment, and there is uncertainty as foreign trade continues to grow. On January 15th, in 2019, the China Machine Tool Association and the government department work symposium was held in Beijing. Wang Ruixiang, president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, pointed out that in 2018, when he briefly reported on the economic operation of the machinery industry, in 2018, under the complicated internal and external environment, the economic operation of the machinery industry was generally within a reasonable range, but it was stable and stable. There is a drop in the middle, and the growth rate has dropped back from the previous month. The main indicators need attention. From the overall situation, first, the growth rate of value-added has increased month by month in the first half of the year, and slowed down month by month in the second half of the year. From January to November 2018, the growth rate of the value added of the machinery industry slowed down from 8.4% in August, and the growth rate dropped to 6.6% year-on-year, higher than the national industrial added value growth rate. The annual growth rate is expected to be around 6.5%. Second, the output of major products increased year-on-year, but the growth category continued to decrease. Among the 120 major products monitored by the machinery industry from January to November 2018, there were 62 kinds of products with a year-on-year increase in output, accounting for 51.67%, and 58 products with a year-on-year decline in output, accounting for 48.34%. Third, economic efficiency maintained growth, but the growth rate declined. From January to November 2018, the machinery industry realized a main business income of 19.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%; the total profit reached 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.27%. Compared with the same period of last year, it dropped 2.4 and 8.37 percentage points respectively, which was lower than the national industry 2.01 and 9.58 percentage points respectively. Fourth, the main sub-sectors are clearly differentiated, and the car has a large decline. From January to November 2018, the automobile industry realized a total profit of 555.83 billion yuan, down 5.87% year-on-year, down 11.9 percentage points from the same period of the previous year (6.04%), accounting for 42.39% of the machinery industry's profit, down 3.67 percentage points year-on-year. The non-automotive industry realized a total profit of 755.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.22%, higher than the industry average of 6.95 percentage points. Among them, construction machinery, petrochemical general, general parts, machine tools, and internal combustion engine industries achieved double-digit growth. The profit of construction machinery industry increased by 56.27% year-on-year. The robot and smart manufacturing, automotive, and agricultural machinery industries declined year-on-year. Fifth, the price index rebounded slowly, and the economic operation indicators were not as good as the same period of the previous year. In November 2018, the price index of the machinery industry rose slightly by 0.3% year-on-year. The cost expense profit rate was 7.1%, down 0.36 percentage points year-on-year; the main business income profit rate was 6.65%, down 0.31 percentage point year-on-year; the total asset profit rate was 6.35%, down 0.43 percentage points year-on-year. Sixth, the downturn in fixed asset investment has improved, but it is still worthy of attention. From January to November 2018, the investment growth rate of general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing in the machinery industry was 9.5%, 16.8%, 3.3% and 13.1%, respectively, except for the automobile manufacturing industry. Higher than the entire society (5.9%) investment growth rate. Seventh, foreign trade has maintained growth, but there is uncertainty. According to customs statistics, from January to November 2018, the export of machinery and equipment was 392.085 billion US dollars, up 13.7% year-on-year; the export of transportation tools was 108.391 billion US dollars, up 13.7% year-on-year; the export of instrumentation was 65.112 billion US dollars, up 2% year-on-year. From January to November 2018, the import of machinery and equipment was US$186.923 billion, up 21.7% year-on-year; the import of transportation tools was US$105.459 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year; the import of instrumentation was US$945.22 billion, up 7.1% year-on-year. Under the background of the growing trade friction between China and the United States, there is still some uncertainty. When talking about the problem, Wang Ruixiang pointed out that first, the market demand faced by the machinery industry in 2018 is still sluggish, and the growth rate of some products is slowing down. From January to October, the cumulative orders decreased by 2.72% year-on-year, especially in the electrical and electronic industry. Second, the cost pressure is high and the efficiency is difficult to improve. From January to November, the main business cost of the machinery industry increased by 7.44% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of the main business income and total profit during the same period. In 2018, the total profit of the machinery industry grew at a low rate. The profit rate of the main business income was 6.65%, which was lower than 0.31 percentage points in the same period of the previous year. Third, the total amount of accounts receivable was large, the recovery was difficult, and the operational efficiency declined. From January to November, the total amount of accounts receivable of the machinery industry reached 4.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.75%, accounting for 33.56% of the total liquid assets of the whole industry, accounting for one-third of the total industrial accounts receivable. The current assets turnover rate was 1.53%, down by 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, and the average asset-liability ratio was 56.4%. Based on the above situation, Wang Ruixiang judged that in 2018, the added value of the machinery industry, the growth rate of the main business income was around 7%, the profit increased by about 2%, and the import and export trade grew moderately. It is estimated that the main indicators of the machinery industry in 2019 will be industrial added value, the main business income will be around 6.5%, the profit growth will be around 5%, and the import and export trade will grow moderately. The difficulty of implementation will be greater than 2018. 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