National Information Center: China's economy is expected to accelerate recovery and take the lead in recovery
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Since the end of last year, the state has introduced a package of 4 trillion investment plans, 10 major industrial revitalization plans, improving people's livelihood, and stabilizing exports. It has played a positive role in curbing rapid economic decline and stabilizing investor and consumer confidence. The macro economy has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery.
The macro economy has shown a stabilizing trend, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
First, the macroeconomic growth rate stabilized and rebounded. In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 1,398.6 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, up 7.1% year-on-year, 1 percentage point faster than the first quarter. Looking at the quarter, GDP in the first quarter increased by 6.1%, reaching a new low in the past 10 years; the second quarter rebounded strongly, up 7.9% year-on-year, reversing the seven consecutive quarters of deceleration.
Second, the policy role has brought the economy back to the bottom three months ahead of schedule. According to the analysis of China's macroeconomic climate monitoring and early warning system developed by the National Information Center, the leading synthetic index representing the future trend of the macro economy has bottomed out in November 2008, and has steadily rebounded for 7 consecutive months; representing the consistent performance of macroeconomic synchronization. The composite index bottomed out in February 2009 and rebounded for four consecutive months from March to June. It can be judged that China's macroeconomic downturn has been contained and has begun to stabilize and rebound. Under normal circumstances, the consensus synthetic index generally lags behind the leading synthetic index at the end of about 6 months, but under the strong policy stimulus, the lag period is shortened to 3 months, and the macro economy rebounds 3 months ahead of schedule. .
Third, domestic demand has become the main driving force for economic growth, and external demand has significantly dragged down the economy. In the first half of the year, among the three major demand for GDP growth, the total capital formation (including fixed asset investment and inventory) contributed 87.6% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 6.2 percentage points; the final consumption contributed 53.4 to economic growth. %, driving GDP growth by 3.8 percentage points; net exports (foreign demand) contributed to economic growth -41%, and downdraw GDP by 2.9 percentage points.
Economic growth will continue to rebound in the second half of the year The economic success has bottomed out, but the current economic recovery is mainly based on a short-term rebound in inventory adjustment, which is not the same as a trend-oriented economic recovery. The material basis for economic recovery is that enterprises begin a new round of large-scale fixed equipment renewal investment, with the premise that capacity utilization rate returns to normal levels.
In the next stage, while further digesting real estate inventories, China's economy will face severe challenges in digesting excess capacity. The world economic downturn and global overcapacity will make China's “de-capacity†process a long way to go. In this regard, we must not only see the effect of China's policy response to the international financial crisis package, but also the fundamentals of China's medium and long-term development have not changed the favorable side of the economic recovery in the second half of the year, but also to see the increasingly complex environment at home and abroad. The long-standing institutional and structural problems in China have adverse effects on the economy in the second half of the year. Among them, there are six major factors that will affect China's economic operations in the second half of the year.
First, the growth rate of industrial production will continue to rebound steadily. In the first half of 2009, industrial production basically completed the task of “destockingâ€, and the inventory of some products declined more than the actual needs. In the second half of the year, with the expected improvement in macroeconomic and market demand, industrial enterprises will enter the stage of moderate recovery of inventory.
In the second half of the year, under the influence of the economic stability of the major developed countries such as the United States and Europe, the accelerated downward trend of China's exports will be suppressed. It is expected that the decline will be slightly narrowed, which will help the industrial export delivery value to gradually pick up and promote the next step. Production resumed smoothly. In addition, the industrial production leading index PMI has risen for six consecutive months, and has been above the contraction-expansion boundary since March. A higher leading index indicates that industrial growth will increase steadily in the second half of the year.
Comprehensive analysis, it is estimated that the added value of China's above-scale industries will increase by about 8.5% in the whole year of 2009, 1.5 percentage points faster than the first half. However, this level is still below the lowest level in the past 20 years (the industrial added value growth rate in 1999 was 8.9%).
Second, investment growth in the second half of the year has slightly declined, but will continue to grow rapidly. As the effects of economic stimulus policies continue to emerge, the land market warms up and the local government's income and capital matching capacity, the “Notice on Adjusting the Capital Ratio of Fixed Asset Investment Projects†issued by the State Council and the volume and price of the real estate market are rising. The factors that drive investment growth in the first half of the year are still relatively strong, and investment will continue to maintain a high trend; however, the surge in new loans is not sustainable, corporate profits are still declining, external demand is sluggish, and overcapacity will inhibit investment growth. The growth rate has dropped from the first half of the year.
It is estimated that the growth rate of urban fixed assets investment will be about 30% in the whole year, and the fixed asset investment of the whole society will increase by about 31%. As the adjustment of inventory investment mainly occurs in the first quarter, it is expected that the contribution rate of investment demand to economic growth will increase quarter by quarter, and investment will remain the most important driving force for economic growth.
Third, the expansion of consumer policies has further strengthened, and the retail sales of consumer goods have continued to grow steadily. First, the stable income of residents will promote consumption to continue to heat up. Under the influence of the steady increase in the income of urban and rural residents, it is expected that the retail sales of social consumer goods will continue to expand in the second half of the year.
Second, policies promote the formation of new consumption hotspots. Products such as home appliances will become a new consumption hotspot after housing cars. On the one hand, in the second half of the year, with the expansion of product categories and quality of home appliances to the countryside, the sales volume of rural household appliances will grow at a faster rate. On the other hand, subsidies for the “old-for-new†policy of household appliances introduced by the State Council will boost consumption in the urban household appliance market. In addition, as the community's expectations for future inflation increase, the consumption of valuable hedging commodities will also grow rapidly.
Third, the consumption of leading markets such as real estate and automobiles has improved. Among them, housing consumption is expected to continue to rise. As the current housing demand is mainly improvement and investment demand, the buyers' economic strength and ability to pay are strong, and the stable purchasing power will promote the rapid growth of housing consumption in the second half of the year; automobile consumption will increase steadily. Encouraging automobile scrapping, expanding the scope of subsidies for vehicles going to the countryside, and supporting farmers to directly purchase light-duty trucks and other automobile consumption policies will continue to improve, and will promote the rapid growth of China's automobile consumption. It is expected that the upgrading trend of China's automobile consumption structure will gradually expand from large cities to second- and third-tier cities and rural areas in the second half of the year. The sales of automobiles with low price and low fuel consumption continue to grow.
In general, in the second half of the year, as the economy stabilizes and rebounds, coupled with the policy effect and long-term factors, consumer demand will continue to grow steadily. However, employment pressure will affect residents' income growth, and consumer confidence will remain at a historically low level. Affect the level of consumption. It is estimated that the retail sales of consumer goods will reach 1,247.6 billion yuan in 2009, with a nominal increase of 15.0%.
Fourth, the decline in foreign trade exports is expected to gradually narrow, and the trade surplus has declined. Under the influence of factors such as warming external demand, effective policies, and rising prices, it is expected that the decline in China's foreign trade imports and exports will show a narrowing trend in the second half of the year.
First, the deterioration of external demand is expected to ease. In May, US retail sales rose by 0.5%, the biggest increase in four months. The manufacturing sentiment index reached its highest level since September 2008; the euro zone and Japan’s leading economic indicators also showed upward trend for several consecutive months. It is predicted that the trend of continued deterioration of economic operation will be alleviated. The economic stability of the major trading partners in the second half of the year will be conducive to the improvement of China's external demand environment, and the decline in exports is expected to narrow. At the same time, as China's economy stabilizes and rebounds, the decline in imports in the second half of the year is expected to narrow significantly.
Second, the effect of the foreign trade support policy will be further revealed. First, seven times to increase the export tax rebate rate, relax the processing trade restrictions category, processing trade account provisions, "from real to name" and other measures will reduce the cost of export enterprises, enhance the export capacity of enterprises; second, the implementation of renminbi cross-border Settlement and expansion of the scope of the RMB swap agreement will help companies avoid exchange rate risks and increase their willingness to import and export; once again, increasing the export credit line and expanding export insurance coverage will promote the future market share of export products.
Third, the rebound in import and export prices will lead to a slowdown in nominal growth. On the one hand, some international commodity prices have recently shown signs of bottoming out. It is expected that commodities such as oil, grain and non-ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate upwards in the context of the stabilization of the world economy in the second half of the year, driving China's import and export commodity price index to rebound. On the other hand, China's import and export commodity price index peaked in the third quarter of last year and has since fallen back quickly. Due to the price factor in the same period last year, China's import and export commodity price index is expected to rise steadily in the second half of the year. Therefore, due to price factors, the trend of nominal growth in import and export will be reduced, and the nominal growth rate of imports and exports, especially imports, will gradually approach the actual growth rate.
In summary, the decline in China's foreign trade exports in the second half of the year slowed down, and is expected to decline by about 17.5% for the whole year; the decline in imports has decreased significantly from the first half of the year, and has dropped by 16% for the whole year; the annual trade surplus has fallen to about US$220 billion.
Fifth, the price down cycle is coming to an end, and the CPI is expected to turn from negative to positive during the year. In the first half of the year, new loans amounted to 6.37 trillion yuan, three times that of the same period of the previous year, and far exceeded the annual control target of 5 trillion yuan. The impact of rapid growth in money and credit supply on future price increases cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp increase in liquidity and the extremely loose monetary policy of all spheres have made inflation expectations stronger.
According to estimates, the CPI hikes in the second half of this year were reduced from -1.5% in the first half to -0.9%, and became zero in December. Therefore, the impact of the base factor on prices will gradually weaken. However, the transmission of rising prices of primary products such as oil and gas, the impact of rising prices of public goods such as water, and the rebound in international commodity prices have led to a gradual increase in new price increases. Of course, overcapacity will curb price recovery and summer grain will continue for six consecutive years. Increasing production per year and sufficient food supply will have a greater inhibitory effect on consumer price increases.
Overall, the CPI and PPI will continue to show negative growth in the third quarter, and the PPI decline may even increase. Considering the gradual recovery of market demand, the impact of hikes, the increase in input price, and the liquidity, it is expected that CPI will show positive growth before the end of the year, and the PPI growth rate is difficult to return during the year. It is estimated that the CPI will decrease by about 0.5% year-on-year and the PPI will decrease by about 5%.
Sixth, some industries have serious overcapacity, and it is difficult to cultivate new growth points. First, the problem of overcapacity in some industries is outstanding. At present, overcapacity in some industries in China is serious: on the one hand, China's economy continued to grow at a high rate of 11% for five years in 2003-2007, and a large amount of production capacity was formed; on the other hand, the serious shortage of external demand led to an overcapacity problem in some export-oriented industries. . In addition, the current problem of overcapacity is global and complex. Not only is there a surplus of backward production capacity, but some of the advanced production capacity is also surplus, which makes it difficult to “de-capacitizeâ€.
Second, the “adjustment of structure†is slower, and it is more difficult to cultivate new growth points. With the gradual confirmation of the bottom of the economic operation, the macro-control policy should gradually shift from “doing no effort to ensure growth†to “paying more attention to structural adjustment and focusing on cultivating new growth pointsâ€. Of course, the task of adjusting the economic structure and focusing on nurturing new economic growth points is even more arduous.
Third, there are problems with the matching funds of local governments. The low rate of local matching funds has made some projects unable to start in time as planned, and some projects have started slowly. If this situation continues to spread, it will not only affect the timely implementation of investment projects, but also the central economic stimulus plan. "Trailing" hinders the full recovery of our economy.
Fourth, monetary policy faces a dilemma. At present, despite the large scale of new loans, some funds have not entered the real economy, but have entered the stock market and the housing market, especially in the case of rising inflation expectations, which may lead to new asset bubbles. If the financial management department tightens credit, it may affect some enterprises that need credit funds, which may inhibit the economic recovery. If the credit is continued, it may lead to excessive liquidity and asset bubbles. In addition, after some local governments have tried every means to win the central investment project, it is difficult to keep up with the matching funds. Some local projects even have difficulty in capital. These projects can only be maintained by loans, especially after the project is launched, and there is a lack of follow-up funds. . If the central bank tightens monetary policy, some projects may not be able to advance, resulting in unrecoverable investment and new bad debts; if the loan continues to be offered, it may face pressure from excessive new loans. Therefore, in the next stage, monetary policy faces a dilemma of how to grasp the strength.
Considering the factors of total social supply and demand and the base of the previous year, the economic growth rate will increase quarter by quarter in 2009. According to estimates, the annual GDP will increase by about 8% year-on-year; among them, the added value of the primary industry will increase by 3.5%. The added value of the secondary industry increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 8.6%.