Photovoltaic industry is coming in the winter, the price of photovoltaic industry chain will fall in the fourth quarter.
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The “cold winter†of the photovoltaic industry has arrived . Henning Wicht, senior director and chief analyst of the internationally renowned solar energy analysis organization IHS-iSuppli, said in Shanghai that although the scale of the PV market will still increase by 25% compared with the same period last year, the installation volume next year May drop. It is expected that the price of the PV industry chain will fall slightly in the fourth quarter. Profits in the photovoltaic industry chain have been squeezed This year, with the European debt crisis intensifying and the continuous reduction of subsidies in several major PV application markets, the global PV industry has suffered unprecedented losses, and prices at all ends of the industry chain have been falling. According to iSuppli data, in the second quarter of this year, the price of crystalline silicon components fell by 16%, and the decline in the third quarter continued. At present, the price of crystalline silicon components of China's first-line suppliers is between 0.83 and 0.85 euros/W. The price of crystalline silicon cells and wafers also fell to $0.75/W (battery) and $0.54/W (156mm polysilicon). In the same period, only the price of polysilicon was relatively stable, and it has been hovering between 50-60 USD/kg, but it is expected to fall to 40 USD/kg in the fourth quarter. As a result, from silicon wafers to component suppliers are facing a situation where profits are squeezed. For most battery and component manufacturers, EBIT is still close to zero or even negative. “At present, only vertical integration plants can guarantee higher profit margins; but if they want to continue to implement integration strategies, they must also guarantee relatively high capital expenditures. In addition, only industries such as EPC, installers and inverters have maintained reasonable budgets. Profit margins. If the PV market is sluggish, the inverter industry can quickly adjust production or business transformation. As a result, its inventory levels will not increase and prices will not fall as much as the silicon supply chain,†Wicht said. Germany will achieve PV parity online in advance. However, the rapid decline in the price of the silicon industry chain is not all bad. "There is also a benefit to the rapid decline in the price of silicon supply chains, which is to accelerate the realization of affordable Internet access," Wicht said. According to iSuppli predicts that in 2011 the fourth quarter, ahead of Germany's PV will achieve grid parity client. This is mainly due to the rapid decline in the price of components, which may cause the price of small civilian photovoltaic systems to fall below 2.0 Euro/W. If the PV system is used for 20 years, the current unit cost of electricity in the system is 0.23 Euro/kWh. At present, in Germany, household electricity users pay an average of about 0.23 euros/kWh to grid operators. However, Wicht believes that global PV demand may not increase again. “We expect the PV market to reach 21.9GW in 2011. Major installers such as Germany, Italy, the US, China and Japan will drive the market to increase by 25% compared to 2010. However, due to the reduction in subsidy budget and the government’s installation of PV Restricted, the total PV installations are likely to decline in 2012. The regions where installations are expected to decline include Italy, France and Germany,†Wicht said.