Refined oil price is expected to be lowered again on April 11

Starting from yesterday, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 310 yuan and 300 yuan per ton respectively. The price of 92 gasoline in Beijing has risen by 0.25 yuan from the previous 8.05 yuan to 7.8 yuan per litre. On the first day of the oil price cut, due to price reductions at many gas stations, the cheapest 92 gasoline in the capital sold at 7.2 yuan per liter.

>> More than two-tenths of dynamic stations started selling at yesterday's price cuts. Yesterday, some stations filled the market with discounted price adjustments. The preferential rate per liter was between 0.05-0.6 yuan, and the lowest price for the Beijing 92 gasoline was 7.2 yuan per liter.

According to statistics provided by OilerNet, there are 1,181 gas stations in the Beijing area, of which 270 are gas stations with No. 92 gasoline below 7.8 yuan/liter, accounting for 23% of the total.

There are 67 private-owned gas stations, 117 Sinopec, and 43 PetroChina. Among them, the 4 gas stations with the lowest price of No. 92 gasoline are all socially private, and the cheapest gasoline No. 92 in Sinopec and PetroChina's two gas station systems is priced at 7.3 yuan per liter.

>> Predicting that the price of oil will cut the pricing mechanism for refined oil products on April 11 will narrow the price adjustment cycle from 22 working days to 10 working days. Zhongyu Information analyst Wang Jintao stated that taking into account the factors of the Ching Ming Holiday, the time window for the first price adjustment of the new mechanism was on April 11. It is expected that the price of oil will be lowered at that time. At present, although the new refined oil pricing mechanism announced that it has modified the affiliation of oil products, it has not announced specific details. The market is widely speculated that Oman crude oil will replace Xinta crude oil as a new linked oil. Wang Jintao stated that if the adjustment plan of “Oman crude oil instead of Xinta crude oil” is calculated, the newly adjusted crude oil crude oil price change rate will continue to be negative, and the probability of lower domestic refined oil prices will be greater than the upward adjustment.

Analyst Li Hong pointed out that at present, the economic recovery of EU countries is not optimistic, and it is bound to restrain the rebound of oil prices. At the same time, the current status of oversupply of crude oil can not be changed, the relative price of oil is also in a high position, there is still room for exploration, so in April domestic refined oil prices may continue to decline, is expected to usher in a short period of time "two consecutive decline" .

Analyst Li Yan believes that the international crude oil price in April will most likely show a narrow range of turbulence, and the prospect of another domestic product oil price adjustment is not yet clear.

In addition to gasoline and diesel prices, domestic aviation kerosene prices in April were the first to drop. "The domestic aviation kerosene price is linked to the Singapore aviation fuel price, and adjustments are made on the 1st of each month." Treasure Island analyst Liu Dongqin said that due to the impact of low international oil prices, the Singapore Airlines kerosene About 7,436 yuan per ton, down 479 yuan from the previous month, it is expected that the domestic aviation kerosene prices will be adjusted downwards by 479 yuan from April 1st. By April 5, the domestic aviation company's fuel surcharges are also expected to fall.

>> Analysis of new mechanisms to help "two barrels of oil" reduction industry Insiders generally pointed out that yesterday after the launch of the new refined oil pricing mechanism, PetroChina, Sinopec's "two barrels of oil" refining losses will also be essentially eliminated concerns.

Sinopec is the second largest oil company in China and the largest supplier of refined oil products. Sinopec's refining and oil sales accounted for a significant proportion of the company's revenue, and the adjustment of refined oil prices was not in place. This has been one of the important reasons for Sinopec's oil refining business losses. According to the financial report on March 24, Sinopec's refining division suffered a loss of 11.9 billion yuan in 2012. PetroChina's refining business in 2012 had a loss of 33.672 billion yuan.

Zhuo Chen, analyst of Chenchuang, said that the price reduction, PetroChina, Sinopec's oil refining profits may be reduced 160-170 yuan / ton, both into a state of loss. However, the new pricing mechanism has greatly shortened the price adjustment cycle, making the domestic refined oil sales price appear “slightly quick adjustment” in the latter part of the period, and can more timely reflect the changes in cost prices, and the two major oil companies in the refining sector and in various local refining companies. The profits should bring mild protection and further ease the loss of the oil refining business of the two major oil companies.

Yesterday, an insider of Sinopec also stated that the price adjustment of refined oil was relatively slow in the past. In the international market, buying crude oil at a high price and selling it at a low price in the domestic market had a negative impact on the refining sector. After timely price adjustment, the company will be able to buy oil at a high price, sell oil at a reasonable price, and ensure that the profit of the refining segment is small and profitable.