The first two months of electricity consumption slowed down the economic slowdown signal or appeared
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According to the social power consumption data released by the National Energy Administration yesterday, the national social power consumption in the first two months of this year totaled 824.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, which was 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year.
Electricity consumption in a single month in February increased by 13.7% year-on-year. However, since February is a traditional Chinese New Year holiday, the general data does not have much reference.
In terms of industries, the first industry's electricity consumption in the first two months was 11.3 billion kWh, down 7.8% year-on-year; the second industry's electricity consumption was 582 billion kWh, up 4.3%; the tertiary industry's electricity consumption was 109.4 billion kWh. The growth rate was 5.0%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 121.7 billion kWh, an increase of 6.3%.
Among them, the second industry has the lowest electricity consumption growth rate. Lin Boqiang (microblogging) of China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University told the reporter of China Business News that the heavy industry in the secondary industry is a large electricity consumer, accounting for about 70% of the total electricity consumption, which is closely related to the overall economic trend. Related.
Last year's electricity consumption data showed that the growth rate of light electricity consumption in light industry was obvious, which was interpreted as the trend of China's industrial structure becoming lighter and lighter. However, from the data of the first two months of this year, the growth rate of light industry electricity consumption is only 1.6%. An expert from China Electricity Council believes that the slowdown in the growth of electricity consumption in light industry has the effect of festival shutdowns. The growth rate of heavy industry electricity consumption was 4.8%, which did not fluctuate significantly compared with last year.
The data also shows that the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment in the country is 668 hours, a decrease of 34 hours compared with the same period last year. Among them, the average utilization hours of hydropower equipment was 352 hours, a decrease of 31 hours; the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment was 791 hours, a decrease of 14 hours, indicating that economic growth did slow down.
The economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 13th also shows the reality of the slowdown in investment this year: the national fixed asset investment in the first two months increased by 17.9% year-on-year, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate was in 2002. The lowest since December. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the lowest in the past five years since April 2009. The market is already expecting the government to introduce stimulus policies, and the electricity consumption data only confirms this trend.
However, the weak electricity consumption data is also related to the country's overcapacity measures to combat air pollution. Overcapacity industries such as steel, glass and cement are high-energy and high-power industries, and the compression of these industries will also affect. To the power consumption growth rate.
Many provinces across the country have also lowered their target of economic growth in 2014. The way of transferring and adjusting the structure and improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth are reflected in the use of electricity. At the end of last year, the policy of diluting GDP assessment was introduced, which also affected the economic data. It seems that the electricity consumption data is more realistic.
On the micro level, the reporter called the companies in the chemical, coke and other industries to exchange views on economic trends and status quo. Frontline employees don't care much about macro data such as electricity consumption, but they are not optimistic about this year's product sales. Generally, sales of major industrial products will start to pick up after March, but it is still very poor this year.
After the announcement of the economic operation data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the market is also waiting for a stimulus policy. But once stimulated, it will fall into a cycle of overcapacity.
However, Lin Boqiang has repeatedly said that the short-term electricity consumption data is difficult to reflect the real trend of the economy and requires a longer period of observation.