The transformation trend of machinery industry in 2011

In recent years, with the rapid development of the equipment manufacturing industry, the compound growth rate of China's basic parts has reached more than 30% in recent years. However, due to the long-term lack of attention to basic components, the overall development level is low. The high-value-added basic parts products of key parts of aviation, high-speed rail, automobile, nuclear power, engineering machinery, CNC machine tools and other industries need to rely on imports. Therefore, with the relevant policy support The intensity will increase, and the industrial upgrading of the mechanical basic parts industry and the import substitution potential of high-end products will remain huge.

In 2010, the prosperity of the machinery industry increased rapidly. In the main sub-sectors of machinery, the growth rate of production and sales of engineering machinery, railway equipment, machine tools and other sub-sectors in the first ten months of this year was over 40%, maintaining a high degree of prosperity. The growth rate of heavy machinery and petrochemical equipment is lower, but the growth rate is also above 20%.

Industrial upgrading and transformation is the trend of industry development. There are still large development areas for sub-sectors such as construction machinery that have global competitive advantages. Strategic emerging industries will accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading of the industry, and transform heavy machinery into new energy and other industries. The high-end equipment manufacturing industry, such as high-end CNC machine tools and marine engineering, is in its infancy, but its long-term growth is certain. The transformation of the machinery industry from labor-intensive to capital- and technology-intensive, from manufacturing to service, and from low-end to high-end products is a trend in the industry.

Steel prices remain generally stable, helping to improve the industry's profitability. This year, steel prices showed a slight upward trend year-on-year, while the overall situation remained stable. As the steel industry is still overcapacity and downstream demand remains stable, it is unlikely that steel prices will rise sharply. Based on historical experience, in the context of a stable and small increase in steel prices, it will help improve the profitability of the machinery industry.

At present, the overall valuation of the machinery industry is in the middle of the A-share market. The rise in the industry's prosperity and the high-end equipment manufacturing industry as a strategic emerging industry have boosted the valuation of the industry. In the major sub-sectors of machinery, the valuation of the construction machinery industry is relatively low, followed by heavy machinery, machine tools, coal machinery and so on. Among the railway equipment, the valuation of the spare parts industry is higher than that of China South Locomotive (601766) and China North Locomotive (601299). The price-earnings ratio of aerospace and nuclear power equipment is relatively high, and the industry's high growth prospects have been reflected in the valuation. The high-end equipment manufacturing industry represents the development direction of industrial upgrading, but we also notice that most industries in strategic emerging industries are developing on the basis of traditional industries.

 

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