Will the German auto industry adjust its electrification in the future?
Recently, the German Automobile Manufacturers Association (VDA) convened a high-level VDA technology conference held by the country's major automakers and parts suppliers. The representatives of the German auto industry gathered to discuss the development path of the country's vehicle electrification technology. These automakers agree that the future transportation system will be fully electrified, but which technology should be focused on, and the participants are not satisfied. According to the German "Business Daily" report, after the VDA technology conference, the heads of the three German car giants of Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler held a conference call to discuss and finally reach a consensus, that is, the German automotive industry in the short to medium term. The future will belong to electric vehicles. Germany's three giants bet pure electric It is reported that Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler's heads, Des, Kruger and Tsai Chee, agree that in the next 10 years, electric vehicles will become the most important technology for German automakers to comply with EU environmental regulations. In other words, the German car giants believe that in the short to medium term, Germany should focus on the development of electric vehicles, rather than other electrified vehicles. The three car companies said that for the moment, in the short term, the electrification of passenger cars is already unstoppable. According to the German "Business Daily", Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler plan to inform VDA of their consensus and hope that VDA will draft an official document to make the development of electric vehicles common to VDA, German automakers and the German government. position. German automakers hope to promote the construction of the country's charging infrastructure and hope that the government can introduce more measures to subsidize consumers' purchase of electric vehicles. It is reported that the heads of the three car companies will hold a summit in the German Chancellor's Office in April this year to discuss what framework should be developed to promote the development of electric vehicles in the country. Not long ago, VDA President Enhard Matthes once said that in the next three years, the German automotive industry will invest nearly 60 billion euros in the field of electric vehicles and autonomous driving to ensure the competitiveness of the German automotive industry in the future. "The electric car boom is sweeping across Europe. Without electric vehicles, the EU will not be able to meet its emission reduction targets by 2030," Matthes said. He also called for appropriate administrative measures throughout the EU to promote the development of the electric vehicle industry. A few days ago, German Finance Minister Olaf Schultz also expressed his intention to extend the tax incentives for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the country for 10 years. Schultz said: "I think that in terms of industrial policy, it is important that we increase the support for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The preferential policy is due to expire in 2021." Commercialization of hydrogen fuel is still far away In addition, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler also believe that in the next 10 years, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may not be able to be used in large-scale commercial applications and become a competitive mass production technology in the market. By the end of 2018, 26 new public hydrogen refueling stations had been put into operation in Germany, with a total of 60 public hydrogen refueling stations. Currently, there are about 500 fuel cell vehicles in Germany. German automakers' views on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are very different from many Asian automakers, especially Hyundai, Toyota and Honda, which have already launched hydrogen fuel production models. Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity account for a relatively high global fuel cell vehicle market and are important drivers in the global fuel cell vehicle market. Hyundai, the South Korean automaker, is the world's first manufacturer to introduce a hydrogen fuel cell production car. Last year, Hyundai released the NEXO model with the fourth-generation hydrogen fuel cell technology, and its performance has been greatly improved. Both Japan and the Korean government are vigorously promoting the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which is an important part of building a "hydrogen energy society." Among them, the Japanese government plans to maintain 40,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the country by 2020, and 200,000 and 800,000 by 2025 and 2030 respectively. The South Korean government released the "Hydrogen Energy Economic Activation Roadmap" in January this year. It plans to increase the annual production capacity of the country's hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars to 100,000 by 2025, halving the price. The ultimate goal is to achieve a cumulative production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles of 6.2 million by 2040. China is also beginning to vigorously develop hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In fact, Volkswagen Group's brand Audi is also developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Audi brand CEO Bram Schott recently said that Audi will launch a hydrogen fuel cell prototype at the end of this year and batch in 2021. Production of hydrogen fuel cell models. He said that in the next 10 years, Audi will continue to develop hydrogen fuel cell vehicles while developing pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, both of which will be synchronized globally. Daimler has also made some progress in the field of hydrogen fuel cell technology. Volkswagen advocates giving up “Technology Neutrality†In fact, German car companies have agreed on the future development path of electrification, which is mainly driven by Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diss. At the VDA Technology Conference, BMW and other automakers believe that hydrogen fuel and other clean fuel technologies should also be supported. Diss insisted on the development of pure electric technology, and even threatened to withdraw from the VDA because the association's "technically neutral" position could not accurately represent the position of the Volkswagen Group. Diss said that in the case of electric vehicles has become the trend of the industry, but also adhere to the "technology neutral" principle will make Germany after the wave of electrification falls. Diss even called for the promotion of electric vehicles on a larger scale at the expense of internal combustion engine vehicles. Volkswagen hopes that VDA will abandon the "technology neutrality" principle and focus entirely on the development of electric vehicles. Diss believes that supporting the development of other power technologies, such as fuel cells or natural gas engines, will only divert the resources that are most needed for the most important electrical vehicle technology. A few days ago, Diss expressed his opinion on social media: "In the past, Volkswagen refused to promise to focus on developing a certain leading technology, but this position is outdated." The rapid development of electric vehicles allows automakers to fuel vehicles. The R&D investment has been greatly reduced. Volkswagen has previously said that the Volkswagen brand will launch a new generation and the last generation of fuel vehicle power platform in 2026, which means that the Volkswagen brand will set an end point for its own fuel vehicle era and turn to electrification. Volvo will also launch the last generation of diesel engines in the second half of this year, and then fully implement the electrification strategy. At the VDA Technology Conference, Thomas Ulbrich, head of the Volkswagen Group's electric vehicle division, called for the German auto industry to switch to electric vehicles. “Transferring resources to electric vehicles is the most effective and best way to steadily reduce carbon dioxide emissions,†he said. Recently, German car companies have been active in the field of electric vehicles. On March 12th, Volkswagen Group announced that it will launch nearly 70 new electric models in the next 10 years instead of the 50 previously planned. Therefore, it is expected that the number of vehicles produced based on the Group's electric vehicle platform will increase from 15 million to 22 million in the next 10 years. After BMW and Daimler reached a cooperation in the field of shared travel and autonomous driving, they also planned to jointly build an electric vehicle platform. Parts suppliers are unanimously opposed Although Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler have reached an agreement to develop electric vehicles, this may not represent the opinion of the entire German automotive industry. Most German parts suppliers believe that for the foreseeable future, the lineup of automotive products on the market will be composed of vehicles of many different types of power systems. At the VDA conference, ZF CEO Wolf Haning Scheider spoke out the general view of German component suppliers that plug-in hybrid vehicles will become the mainstream electrified vehicle type in the short to medium term. "Plug-in technology will be an excellent solution for the next few years," said Shi Aide. He also pointed out that electric vehicles now account for only a small part of the global auto market, and many consumers are not willing to buy electric vehicles with relatively short driving ranges. Shi Aide said that the number of registered electric vehicles in the world last year was 2.23 million, accounting for only 2.4% of the total sales of 94 million new cars worldwide. "The strategy of a company should not be imposed on the entire industry." Scheider responded to Diss's point of view. German brand supplier Mahler CEO Stratholman also called for a diversified power system. He said: "What kind of power system is the best, depending on the specific needs and specific uses of the consumer." For example, if he commutes in the city, electric cars may be a better option than hybrid cars. If it is long-distance travel and transportation, an internal combustion engine car or a fuel cell vehicle may be more suitable. Bosch also opposes the view of the Volkswagen Group that the internal combustion engine will continue to play an important role, and the market itself will decide which technology will eventually win. Stefan Harton, a member of the Bosch Group's board of directors, said that which kind of power system will become mainstream in the future is determined by many factors. Therefore, the regulatory level must adhere to the principle of “technology neutrality†and leave the choice to consumers and the market. 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