Xi Jinping clarifies that economic development adapts to the new normal tolerate economic slowdown
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President Xi Jinping pointed out during his recent inspection in Henan that China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. We must enhance our confidence, proceed from the current stage of China's economic development, adapt to the new normal, and maintain a strategically normal state of mind.
As an important economic term in recent years, the “new normal†was first proposed by Mohamed El-Erian, president of the US Pacific Fund Management Corporation. Although there are different meanings in different fields, the “new normal†is generally described by Western public opinion in the macroeconomic field as a slow and painful process of economic recovery after the crisis.
A ministry official said in an interview with China Business News yesterday that as an important part of the world economy, the Chinese economy inevitably presents a "new normal", "from the macro data and work practices of the past two years. Look, we should change our understanding as soon as possible, from the 'normality' of the past to the 'new normal'."
The above-mentioned officials said that the formulation of the "new normal" has a high degree of recognition among officials in most economic fields. The President of this time clarified that this formulation unifies thoughts. At the same time, China’s attitude of tolerating economic slowdown has a basis, and the idea of ​​restructuring is once again confirmed.
Chinese-style "new normal"
After Erian proposed the concept of “new normalityâ€, people from different fields gave different meanings in the fields of finance, commerce and macroeconomics. At the 40th Davos Forum held in 2010, a guest suggested that the world may no longer be able to return to a stable "normal" state before the financial and economic crisis, and it will face a new "normal" state.
Li Yang, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, mentioned in an article entitled "A New Stage of China's Economic Development" that the global crisis has entered the "new normal." Traditionally, the economic crisis may have been negative for several consecutive years. However, due to the strong introduction of large-volume control policies, the current crisis does not show negative growth, but rather shows that economic growth is fluctuating at low levels, global liquidity is excessive, bulk product prices and asset prices are not changing, and trade Protectionism is heating up, geopolitical tensions, etc.
In the post-crisis era, the world's major economies began to focus on the concept of “new normalityâ€, and more and more people use this concept to analyze the Chinese economy. In 2012, international rating agency Fitch said China's gross domestic product (GDP) data is in line with the "new normal" growth rate. Fitch also believes that the Chinese economy will avoid a "hard landing."
So, what are the characteristics of the "new normal" of China's economic development? Liu Pei-lin, deputy director of the Development Strategy and Regional Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with the newspaper yesterday that considering the gap between China's technological level and frontier countries, the "new normal" may have several aspects compared with the past normal. The characteristics: the growth rate may be lower than the past 10 years, but compared with other economies in the world, especially developed economies, it is still expected to maintain a high level; the main force driving growth will turn mainly to transformation and upgrading, Productivity improvement and diversified innovation; new changes will take place in the economic structure. For example, the proportion of service industry exceeds that of the secondary industry, and the proportion of investment will peak and decrease slowly.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo [microblogging], told this newspaper that under the "new normal", the first is that China's economy has slowed from rapid growth to medium-to-high-speed growth, and second, China's economic growth model has been extensive. Growth has become innovation and consumption-driven growth. Third, compared with the period of general economic growth, this period should put risk prevention at a more important position, fully understand the difficulties of reform, and fully estimate the pressure of risk release.
New crisis under the "new normal"
In the face of the "new normal", the world's mainstream public opinion seeks breakthroughs in reflection, and the crisis and solutions of different economies have become the focus of discussion. The newspaper combed the views of many analysts and found that the current "China crisis" in the mainstream public opinion is mainly reflected in local debt pressure, financial risks, overcapacity, and rising factor costs.
Wang Yiming, secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission, once said that the challenges under the “new normal†are mainly concentrated on four points: first, the contradiction of overcapacity tends to be prominent; second, the cost of production factors is rising rapidly; third, the problem of insufficient innovation capacity of enterprises Increasingly; fourth, financial and financial risks are likely to increase.
A marketer who has been engaged in bond investment for many years told this newspaper that the biggest difference between now and 10 years ago is that the competitiveness of the Chinese economy is entering the bottleneck. "In the past 10 years, we have gained a growing market share of international economic trade, relying on low cost, and this cost advantage is likely to be greatly weakened or even lost in the next 5 to 10 years."
UOB’s latest research report said that as China enters a new phase of reform, restructuring and rebalancing, its economy has entered a “new normal†of moderate growth, and this slow growth is likely to continue into the second quarter of 2014. .
The latest data confirms this view. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which was just released in April, was 50.4. Although the chain rebounded by 0.1 percentage points, the absolute value was still the lowest in the same period of the previous year. Chen Yufei, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, also wrote that China's PMI in April achieved a slight rebound for two consecutive months, but compared with the same period of the previous year, the manufacturing boom rebounded weakly.
Regarding the current downward pressure on the economy, some officials have indicated to the newspaper that the recent slowdown in China’s economic growth has actually started in the fourth quarter of 2010. This is an inevitable process of “transfer stage†of economic growth. After more than three years. After the time, "the basic quick adjustment is in place, the low is not too low, the height is not high, and everyone has to adapt."
Liu Pei-lin believes that the basic characteristics of the "new normal" are mainly determined by the technological gap with the frontier countries and are determined by changes in economic fundamentals. To identify the "new normal", the point is objective, not optimistic or pessimistic. A more accurate expectation will result in a smooth transition between old and new normals.
How to plan ahead tactically
In response to the new situation, the world's major economies have introduced their own measures. Among them, China's "transformation" and "moderate stimulation" attracted a lot of attention. According to the aforementioned report of UOB, the Chinese government has responded tangibly to the potential growth resistance, but the policy is more moderate and more targeted, which is contrary to the large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus after the global financial crisis.
Xi Jinping recently stressed during his inspection in Henan that the fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed. We must adhere to the general tone of work that is stable and progress, and continue to deal with the relationship between stable growth, reform, restructuring, benefiting people, and preventing risks. Reform, give play to advantages, innovative ideas, and make overall plans to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the economy and social harmony and stability.
Many market participants said that China's current overall control thinking is not to introduce large-scale stimulus, adhere to the decisive role of the market, and implement measures such as reducing power and decentralization. At the same time, the implementation of the free trade zone and the "two belts and one road" (Silk Road Economic Belt, Yangtze River Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road), as soon as possible to tap new dividends. In fact, the Chinese government has already accelerated investment in infrastructure and affordable housing construction.
Liu Pei-lin said that the final formation of the "new normal" depends not only on objective expectations, but also on policies that conform to the law and solid reforms and actions. China's "new normal" at this stage has two main tasks: the more urgent is to resolve some of the economic, financial and social risk factors formed under the old normal; the equally urgent but more significant and far-reaching tasks, It is to promote transformation and upgrading.
Specifically, Liu Pei-lin believes that it is the key to the overall situation that can promote the upgrading and upgrading of equipment as soon as possible to replace real estate as a new force to drive investment growth. "If this is not done, not only does the current risk deficiencies lack quality growth, but it is also worth worrying that the expected "new normal" will be difficult to form, and the growth rate will be lower than the current development stage. The level, this will be a passive situation that we are very reluctant to see."