Automotive and auto parts industry dynamics: shifting from confidence to patience

Data points In September, automobile production and sales were 166.1 and 1.617 million units, up 3.7% and -1.8%, 10.6% and 8.2% from the previous month. Among them, passenger cars sold 1.316 million units, -0.3% year-on-year and 7.9% from the previous month; commercial vehicles It sold 302,000 units, compared with -7.6% year-on-year and 9.2% from the previous month. Sales volume review: After the rebound in passenger car demand stabilized, the commercial vehicle sales in September were lower than our expected value (5%) compared with the normal narrow passenger car in September (1.6%), mainly because the Japanese lost orders were not in the short term. Can be completely converted to other car sales. Excluding the impact of the Diaoyu Islands incident, industry sales stabilized in September after rebounding in July and August. In the current economic situation, it is difficult to expect terminal demand to continue and rise sharply, but we still emphasize that the current sales situation of passenger cars reflects demand resilience, and with the release of demand for nearly 2-3 months and the start of production reduction by Japanese car manufacturers, the industry There is no obvious pressure on stocks, which is conducive to short-term sales and price trends. Considering the delayed conversion of Japanese car orders and inventory dynamics, it is expected that the growth rate of narrow passenger car sales in October will rebound to nearly 10%. In addition to the large-capacity passenger car sales of more than 11 meters and the release of school bus demand, the sales in September were abnormally low, and the sales of trucks and light passengers were seasonal. Diaoyu Islands Incident: The reduction of Japanese car purchase intention is likely to be long-term. Because the Diaoyu Islands dispute has spread widely through the Internet and deeply affects domestic public opinion, and Japanese auto products themselves are not leading, we judge that the decline in purchasing intention of Japanese cars is likely to be long-term. Joint venture brands that compete directly with them and have more new products will benefit greatly. Investment suggestion: From confidence to patience, structural opportunities still do not fully reflect our continuous emphasis on avoiding excessive pessimism in late August, suggesting to increase the allocation of a few high-quality passenger car stocks. After the rise since September, we continue to be optimistic about the relative stocks. Absolute income opportunities, due to the resilience of demand, the decline in capacity utilization rate in a reasonable range and entering the second half, valuation and international standards, asset quality and other reasons are still established. Compared with the emphasis on avoiding excessive pessimism/enhancing confidence at the end of August, we suggest investors to increase patience at the current time, and the extent/sustainability of demand improvement and new capacity are still under the situation that the macroeconomic trends at home and abroad are still uncertain. In the case of faster release, you should be more patient with regard to short-term price/profitability. Individual stocks adhere to the “competitive trend + low valuation” and continue to recommend Changan Automobile. The key recommendation is that the medium-term competitive environment will be significantly improved due to the Japanese car event, and the valuation is the lowest SAIC and Huayu of A-share non-bank listed companies.

Stainless Steel Baking Cooling Rack

Baking rack,baking cooling mesh,Baking cooling rack,Cooling Rack, steel wire cooling rack, etc.

Baking wire mesh is made of high quality 304 stainless steel, never rusting and durable. Cooling Wire mesh does not have any coating or chemical ingredients, making food safer.

Multi-functional Grill Cooking rack: the wire mesh is mainly used for outdoor cooking, it can also be used as a cooling and baking rack. Or you can develop other uses for it.

Baking Rack,Cooling Rack,Kitchen Baking Rack,Stainless Steel Cooling Rack,Oven Baking Rack

Shenzhen Lanejoy Technology Co.,LTD , https://www.szlanejoy.com