Industrial supply and demand are seriously out of balance and the ammonium phosphate market enters a bottleneck

Monoammonium Phosphate: During the long holiday of the National Day, the autumn harvest is taking place in the northern regions. The autumn preparations are generally completed before the autumn harvest. Only a small amount of sporadic products are taken in the late autumn. The use of fertilizers in the middle and late October will begin one after another. There will be no demand for the raw material and ammonium market and they will enter the vacuum stage where there is no market for prices, and the market will be completely stagnant. At present, domestic ammonium enterprises do not offer more, and the price of lesser powder also maintains the previous price. The mainstream price of 55% ammonium powder factory price 2350-2400 yuan, cash transactions 2280-2350 yuan, acceptance 2300-2380 yuan; 57,58% powder turnover 2450-2600 yuan; 60% powder factory price 2600-2800 yuan.

October is a period of gap between the autumn and winter storage, the downstream demand is flat, the company off-season maintenance, digestion of inventory-based. After the autumn market ended, the once-prosperous mono-ammonium market was even more deserted. As soon as the ammonium industry ceased production and production was restricted, the overall operating rate in the country was around 50%, and the construction in the Hubei region was the lowest, only about 20%. Due to the end of the market and the limited demand in the downstream market, it is very difficult for an ammonium enterprise to offer a low price to attract customers. Therefore, most enterprises have stopped quoting and have concluded a single transaction.

Market outlook: After the fall of ammonium, the market demand will cool in the short term. It is expected that the winter storage market will start at the beginning of November. However, due to the large enterprise and social inventory, the demand for winter storage is limited, and compound fertilizers and fertilizers are falling. There is still downward pressure on an ammonium price.

Diammonium Phosphate: The export period of diammonium phosphate enterprises has already ended this week. The company's main energy is to turn to China, but the preparation of fertilizers in the domestic market is also ending in the autumn. In addition, local traders are dumping goods, and corporate sentiments are pessimistic. At present, the winter storage is still early, and the company’s winter storage policy has not yet been introduced, and the offer price has not changed much. 64% diammonium mainstream factory price 3100-3150 yuan, pre-received station price 3250-3300 yuan. However, in recent days, Hubei Yihua [12.36-0.80% shares bar research report] took the lead in the introduction of temporary pricing for the Northeast market, 64% diammonium received 3150-3200 yuan in advance stations, settlement later.

At the end of last month, India and China had 350,000 tons of diammonium export refunds. As some of the goods had been collected, there was a backflow in Shandong ports, and traders dumped goods at low prices, hitting the market, and confidence in the industry was also suppressed. On the eve of the National Day, the market volume of diammonium in the domestic North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China markets is complete. The terminal distributors purchase on-demand and follow-up. As the fertilizer market is in the doldrums, the distributors would rather avoid the risk of stocking after the late stock-out. . After the National Day, the window period has ended, the domestic phosphate fertilizer companies are pessimistic and the downward pressure on prices is very high. Many companies hope that relevant state departments will issue relevant supporting policies to extend the export period and divert the sales pressure in the domestic market to ensure the sound and stable development of phosphate fertilizer companies. However, the export in the off-season is now over, and the export period is basically hopeless.

Market Forecast: At present, the diammonium export and the domestic fall fertilizer are almost finished at the same time. There are no orders for export, domestic traders no longer make payments, and the pressure for companies to take goods increases, and manufacturers in cloud and expensive regions start to reduce the operating rate and reduce supply pressure. As a whole, the end of the domestic autumn, winter storage operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, the industrial overcapacity pressure is huge, the diammonium market entered the bottleneck period. Affected by various negative impacts, the decline in the price of diammonium in the latter half of the year has become inevitable. It is expected that the policies for winter storage of various enterprises will be introduced one after another in mid-October with a drop of around 200 yuan.