Propylene plant capacity supply market firm

The data on import and export is also abnormal. According to customs statistics, from January to September, 2.27 million tons of propylene equipment was imported into China, which was 1.94 million tons in the same period of last year, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year; the average price of imports in the previous September was 1,462 USD/ton, compared with 1,381 dollars/ton in the same period of last year. , year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The same is true for the imports of propylene downstream polypropylene (PP). From January to September, the primary-shaped polypropylene plant imported 2.8 million tons, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, and the average import price rose by 4.4%. In the case of a significant increase in the production capacity of propylene units in the country, the import side also showed that the “price and price rise” trend can only be explained by “蹊跷”.

2014 was a year of rapid growth in the production capacity of propylene equipment in China. According to statistics, as of the end of October, the production capacity of domestic propylene equipment has increased by about 4.55 million tons, and the capacity growth rate will reach more than 20%. The production capacity of traditional naphtha cracking and catalytic cracking is 1.65 million tons, the production capacity of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) is 1.5 million tons, and the production capacity of coal (methyl alcohol) olefins is 1.4 million tons. There will be another year before the end of the year. 2 to 4 sets of new devices were put into production. It is reasonable to say that so many propylene units are put into operation. Propylene plants in the market should be very abundant and the price will be very low. But is it really the case?

As of November 6, international crude oil WTI and Brent fell by 20.8% and 25.2%, respectively, and naphtha in Asia fell by 32.5%. Affected by this, Korean propylene equipment (FOB) fell by 17.8%, while Shandong propylene equipment only fell by 7.7% over the same period. It can be said that the propylene equipment market is firm and it does not seem to be what most people call the “wolf came”. The propylene device market is “unpredictable”.

It is not difficult to find out about the various propylene units put into production this year. There are not many devices that can really provide “commodity propylene”. Equipments for cracking and catalytic cracking are all equipped with PP equipment; for PDH equipment, the production of propylene equipment by satellite petrochemical (002648, stock bar) (450,000 tons/year) and Shaoxing Sanyuan (450,000 tons/year) are for personal use. Mainly, while Haiyuexin Material (600,000 tons/year) produced propylene equipment in the initial part of the supply of Sanyuan, the rest of the main supply of the surrounding PP plant; coal (methanol) olefins production equipment is also most of the supporting downstream PP equipment. In fact, this year's production of propylene equipment is also a real commercialization of propylene equipment, the face of the propylene downstream (except PP) a substantial increase in demand is a bit "watershed" feeling.

Looking at the current situation, the performance of the propylene plant market is a result of the imbalance between commodity supply and downstream demand. It also shows that the layout and consumption structure of propylene plants are not reasonable. Most of the new coal (methanol) olefins production plants are located in underdeveloped regions in China, and the downstream facilities are relatively single. This has also resulted in a large proportion of polypropylene, which has created potential problems for the development of the industry. With the commencement of production of many PDH plants next year, the supply of "commodity propylene" will change, and the recently announced transformation and upgrading of the geometallurgical industry will reveal the direction for the development of fine chemicals while controlling crude oil processing capacity. Or become the unpredictable "dark horse" of the propylene industry in the future.

Relative to the limited supply of "commodity propylene," downstream propylene has ushered in a relatively rapid development. Take acrylic acid as an example. As of the end of October, new production capacity reached more than 700,000 tons, an increase of more than 40% year-on-year. If the self-contained projects of satellite petrochemicals are deducted, the demand for conversion into propylene is also about 350,000 tons, which means that the demand for monoacrylic acid will basically consume half of the newly added propylene units, plus the new ring added this year. With the demand for large devices such as oxypropane and acrylonitrile, the volume of commercial propylene equipment is even more “struggling”. The market reaction also explains the problem. In late October, the shutdown of the PDH plant in Tianjin Suihua caused an odd phenomenon of a daily increase of RMB 200/ton in the Shandong area. Although there are other factors, there is a shortage of “commodity propylene”. It is an indisputable fact.