The transformation of the cotton industry, economic crops are not economic? This kind of money can make money!

In the National 13th Five-Year Plan and the National Crop Production Adjustment Plan issued by the Ministry of Agriculture, the planting structure and major producing areas of China's economic crops will face major adjustments, and cotton, oilseeds, sugar and vegetable crops will face more and more. In the fierce domestic and international market competition, the “uneconomic” of economic crops will become the norm. So, what kind of cash crops should be planted in the next five years? Can farmers get sustained and stable income from it? Today, take your attention to the cotton industry in transition.

Before 2014, the state set a very high temporary storage and storage price for the protection of cotton farmers' cultivation income, and it has been continuously improved for several consecutive years. Most of China's cotton farmers enjoy the country's very favorable cotton purchasing and storage policy, regardless of whether the cotton is good or not. Well, cotton is not sold out, the price is also the bottom of the country, the drought and flood protection, is very profitable. However, this policy subsidy and gift policy ultimately proved to be unsustainable. Because the country's pricing is too high, cotton mills will naturally choose cheap imported lint for processing, resulting in domestic cotton directly into the warehouse after storage. Domestic cotton gradually lost its market.

In 2014, the state canceled the temporary storage and storage of cotton, and implemented the cotton target price reform pilot in Xinjiang. Let the price of cotton be determined by the market. If it is lower than the target price set by the state, then the state will start subsidies again.

Such a policy sounds good, but for many cotton farmers, there is no national price, no subsidies, and the benefits are not good. Many cotton farmers are sighing - the cost per mu is 1,100 yuan, but the output value is less than 1,000 yuan. Many cotton farmers have voluntarily given up and replanted other crops.

Question 1: In the face of the situation where cotton can not be used, how should cotton farmers adjust their planting structure and pattern? Let's take a look at what experts have to offer!

Researcher Li Guoxiang, Institute of Agriculture and Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

Last year, we produced less than 6 million tons of cotton, which was significantly reduced compared with the previous one. However, our cotton imports still have 1.7 million tons, only a slight decrease, and our cotton yarn is imported in large quantities, reaching more than 2 million tons. what?

First of all, we can't beat Others , we will lower the price, but if the quality does not improve, the cotton we produce still has no one, or the processing company would rather go abroad to purchase, and is not willing to buy cheap raw materials produced by farmers. This requires our farmers friends to work hard on quality and quality.

The second is that farmers should organize as much as possible, form a closer relationship with processing enterprises, and realize industrial development. If processing enterprises can change their ideas and guide farmers to produce the raw materials they need, they can reduce costs for processing enterprises. For farmers, they can produce high-quality raw materials that are marketable, so as to achieve win-win.

Question 2: We once said that "the world cotton sees China, and China cotton sees Xinjiang." Once China's cotton was of good quality and high output. How does the current competitiveness become so weak? How can cotton farmers improve the quality and quality of cotton?

Researcher Li Guoxiang, Institute of Agriculture and Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

The growth of cotton requires three external conditions: good light, sufficient water, and excellent soil. Xinjiang is located in the northwest of China, with sufficient illumination, large temperature difference between day and night, wide land area and relatively ideal soil fertility. All three conditions are available, and it is naturally a dominant production area for cotton. However, in order to ensure the efficiency of cotton planting, three major technical guarantees are needed for cotton farmers:

Technology 1: Precision seeding uses machinery to accurately deliver seeds and improve efficiency;

Technology 2: The drip irrigation water consumption is large, and the drip irrigation water-saving technology not only saves water and increases production, but also can greatly improve work efficiency, reduce the labor intensity of irrigation, enhance the ability of crops to resist pests and diseases, and improve crop growth areas and nearby areas. The geographical ecological environment also plays a significant role in promoting;

Technology 3: Mechanized picking increases harvest speed and saves labor costs.

The above three technologies can all be realized under the premise of scale. Xinjiang's cotton fields are hundreds of acres, and intensive management is easy to achieve; but for the mainland, the scale is limited, decentralized operations, and the soil conditions are uneven, not only the quality is not as good as Xinjiang, but the cost is even higher.

Therefore, the “13th Five-Year Plan” has made adjustments to the national cotton area, and the original three major cotton areas: the northwest inland cotton area, the Yellow River basin cotton area, and the Yangtze River basin cotton area are adjusted to: Xinjiang cotton area and coastal areas along the Yangtze River. There are two major cotton areas in the cotton area of ​​the Yellow Saline Beach.

Here we give cotton farmers friends two suggestions:

First, for the dominant production areas, everyone should do a good job on the quality of cotton, and at the same time try to form an effective docking with the processing enterprises. If the quality of long-staple cotton in Xinjiang is very good, it can work towards high-end and high-quality;

Second, for non-preferred production areas, the price has also fallen off the cliff because there is no subsidy. If the unit yield is not more than 500 kg, the only way is to replant other crops. In the face of the adjustment of the industrial structure, everyone must learn to do addition, but also dare to do subtraction and give up those industries that have no comparative advantage. In this way, under the baton of the policy, you can find those projects that are suitable for your own development.

In 2016, commodities ushered in a rebound opportunity, and agricultural products rebounded strongly. Among them, cotton became the leading star product. The fundamentals of supply and demand in 2015/16 tend to improve, providing a prerequisite for cotton recovery. However, the spot gains are limited, the cotton textile industry is recovering slowly, and demand growth is limited.

Fan Zhongxing, a cotton analyst at Luzheng Futures, believes that due to the fact that China's cotton planting area is still being lowered this year, and the weather in some producing areas is changing, the domestic cotton supply gap in the new year is estimated to be large, which requires imported cotton and national storage cotton to make up for it. In the case of growing market demand, domestic cotton and cotton yarn prices are expected to continue to rise. If the downstream industry can not properly digest the pressure of rising raw material prices, it will eventually have an adverse impact on the domestic cotton industry.

How the supply and demand pattern in 2016/17 will become a key factor in the development of the cotton market. From the perspective of supply, Xinjiang is the dominant production area for cotton in the country. The new annual planting area and growth will affect the cotton supply pattern in the new year. By the end of July, Xinjiang cotton is in the flowering and ringing period. The weather conditions and growth will directly affect the output of the new year, let us wait and see.