The US value is high, and the strong metal market is under pressure again.
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[Latest market]
â— LME Electronics - Pan copper 7310 rose 46.2, aluminum 1855 rose 0.2, zinc 1841.8 rose 9.6, lead 2014 rose 19.2, nickel 14830 fell 51, tin 20974 rose 93, COMEX copper 3.3 fell 0.03.
â— International spot gold 1345.3 fell 14.28, silver 21.42 fell 0.84, platinum 1436 fell 19.25, palladium 735.75 fell 2.8.
â—LME stock copper stock: 629950 increased 5550; aluminum stock: 5238500 increased 7575; zinc stock: 1113875 minus 2100; lead stock: 240875 minus 2375; nickel stock: 177948 minus 828; tin stock: 14075 minus 120 tons
â— Shanghai Futures Trading Week inventory: copper 190330 minus 4713; aluminum stock 455651 minus 8760; zinc stock 296654 minus 3544; lead stock 124778 minus 2988.
[LME Interpretation and Today's Forecast]
â— Lun copper early comment: Last Friday, the impact of the US dollar index was limited, and the market closed up to 7310. It is expected that the short-term copper price will continue to rebound and the pressure will be strong, but the 7100 US dollar has strong support.
â— Long lead early evaluation: a small amount of lead per week closed up, ushered in a short-term rebound; domestic lead prices are expected to rebound mainly in small, but due to consumption constraints, lead price rebound potential and potential is not expected to be large .
â— Lun aluminum early evaluation: after the weekly shock of aluminum, after the shock, the US dollar index has reached a new high, so the aluminum price is also under great pressure in the short term, we expect it will steadily fall to the direction of 1750 US dollars.
â— Long-term evaluation of zinc: The recent new high in the US dollar dragged down the weekly gains of the Zhejiang market. The domestic zinc price is expected to fall further. However, due to the national stimulus policy, it is expected that there will be little room for the zinc to fall back.
â— Lunxi early comment: Lunxi rose hesitantly after Friday, and closed higher than 20900 after the high, the transaction decreased compared with the previous day, the market sees more strength weakened, and it is expected to continue testing the 20900 first-line support within the day.
◠Lun Nickel early evaluation: the US index rushed to 84, the metal's gains were suppressed, and the nickel rushed back and fell. Recently, it will once again test the support of US$14,600. The spot is mainly on the sidelines, and Wuxi’s short position can be held.
[Industry Interpretation]
â— The outlook for aluminum prices is low or China will further reduce production capacity
CRU aluminum market expert Marco Georgiou said on Thursday that the low outlook for aluminum prices could prompt China's high-cost aluminum smelters to further cut capacity. China has announced a reduction of annual production capacity of around 1 million tons, and may further reduce its annual production capacity by 2 million tons by 2015.
Interpretation: The short-term impact of reducing production capacity on the domestic aluminum market is very limited, because the scale of new capacity is even larger; so domestic aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure for a long time, but the rate of decline may slow down.
â—The casting industry has a rapid development of aluminum products
Recently, the demand for aluminum alloys in the international market has increased significantly, and there is still a trend of continued expansion. With the rapid development of the global foundry industry and the development of the cable industry, the international demand for aluminum alloys will continue to rise.
Interpretation: At present, the differentiation between the various varieties in the downstream of the aluminum industry is extremely serious. Only a few unique landscapes are good, but most of them are deteriorating. We believe that the demand for cast aluminum alloys has increased greatly in the near future, or it is only a short-term phenomenon, and its long-term prospects. It is still dim.
[Financial Express]
Dow Jones index 15354.4 rose 121.2, Nasdaq 3498.97 rose 33.73, CRB index 530.65 fell 0.16, US dollar index 84.15 fell 0.07, EUR/USD 1.2835 rose 0.0003, USD/JPY 102.64 fell 0.55, US crude oil 95.84 fell 0.18
[Auditor Reads Finance]
â— US May University of Michigan consumer index is much higher than expected
A survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday (May 17) showed that the US consumer confidence index in May was much higher than expected, and the level of confidence was close to the pre-crisis level. The US consumer confidence index for the University of Michigan in May was 83.7, the highest level since July 2007. It is expected to be 78.0 and 76.4 in April.
Interpretation: Good employment data and consumption data in the previous period have boosted investor confidence, indicating that the market is more optimistic about the US economic recovery expectations. This has pushed the US dollar index to a new high, and it has also formed a major pressure on gold and silver.
â— Eurozone's monthly output of construction industry fell by 1.7% in March, falling for the fifth consecutive month
Eurostat's data released on Friday (May 17th) showed that construction output in the euro zone fell for the fifth consecutive month in March, dragging down the region's economy. The data showed that the monthly output rate of construction industry in the euro zone fell by 1.7% in March, and the annual rate fell by 7.9%.
Interpretation: In the first quarter of this year, the euro zone construction industry output rate fell by 3.0%, a decrease from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. The downward trend in the construction industry has spread in the Eurozone. Germany's construction industry output fell 3.1% in March, and the country barely managed to avoid a recession in the first quarter of this year.
A recent sample survey of the production of domestic mine lead smelters shows that the overall operating rate of the smelters surveyed has continued to fall by 1.16 percentage points to 58.81%, which is the fourth consecutive month of continuous decline in operating rates this year. Sun Tao, an analyst at Fubao Lead, believes that the overall decline in the operating rate of lead smelters is mainly due to the sluggish market and weak lead and silver prices this year. In particular, the enthusiasm of the smelters has been severely suppressed since the silver price dive. For example, the Northwest Smelter and the Third Smelter, both under the silver and silver color, are currently in production. Other parts of the smelters surveyed have also planned to reduce production and overhaul. The operating rate of mine lead smelters in May may continue to decline.
According to some raw materials importers, the importer of lead concentrates has recently indicated that the Vietnamese government has restricted the import of minerals such as lead ore into China. It is reported that the export tax rate of some mineral products, including lead ore, will be raised by 10 percentage points from June 9. That is to increase from the original 30% to 40%. The living space of lead concentrate miners is also compressed, because some large smelters use their own industrial advantages to actively enter the upstream lead mining trade, and gradually integrate resources into the lead market. On the whole, except for some manufacturers, the supply of lead ore raw materials is still tight, and the lead price continues to maintain a difficult pattern. However, it is still necessary to drive around the market and the downstream demand.