Xi Jinping mentioned that 4 annihilation battlefields went to stocks.
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Recently, the reporter learned from a number of sources that General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed at the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group meeting to resolve excess capacity, carry out actions to reduce the cost of real economy enterprises, resolve real estate inventories, and prevent financial risks from being “four annihilation warsâ€. Become an important part of the Central Economic Work Conference. In terms of resolving real estate inventory, a number of policies are expected to be launched.
Researchers close to the top told the First Financial Daily that since the positioning is “destockingâ€, the purpose of government regulation is not to continue to boost real estate. In addition, it is expected that local governments will gradually get rid of land finance and real estate dependence in this process. He also said: "Let the real estate market be reactivated, and the flow of sales is the most important. As for how many sets of stocks to solve, there is no such statement."
There is no quantitative target for destocking
According to the latest statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, vacant housing in the country rose to a new high in the first 10 months, while real estate investment hit a new low. The above-mentioned high-level researchers told the "First Financial Daily" that China's economy is still in the process of downswing, whether it can achieve bottoming out and transformation within a year or two, real estate can be said to be the most important boots in this process.
How much is real estate inventory? According to the real estate data released by the Bureau of Statistics in November from January to October this year, as of the end of October, the national commercial housing sales area was 686.32 million square meters, an increase of 21.22 million square meters from the end of September, of which the residential area for sale increased by 11.8 million square meters. Create another record high.
The continued high inventory levels have had a huge negative impact on real estate investment data. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the national real estate development investment was 7.8801 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 2.0% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points from January to September, a record low.
Although the Bureau of Statistics has provided relatively clear data, many industry insiders and institutional analysts interviewed by this reporter believe that there are many disputes about the actual inventory and distribution of real estate in China.
For example, there have been reports in the media that existing vacant homes can solve the housing problem of nearly 200 million people. However, according to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, according to China's per capita housing area of ​​35 square meters, 68,832 square meters of "vacant" housing can only accommodate 20 million people.
For example, the China Household Finance Research and Research Center of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics released a report in 2014 that the overall housing vacancy rate in China's urban areas in 2013 was 22.4%, with a specific amount of 48.88 million sets. According to the report, the demand for rigid housing in China's urban areas is about 23 million, and the demand for improved housing is about 9.5 million, a total of 32.5 million. However, there are 48.88 million sets of vacant houses and 3.5 million sets of commercial houses for sale, with a total supply of 52.48 million sets. The conclusion is that existing vacant homes can be fully equipped with no-housing personnel.
For these disputes, the above-mentioned researchers close to the top told this reporter that the central government did not make hard arrangements for specific local and specific inventory data. The future policy layout is also global. More importantly, it is guided by the power of the market to guide resource allocation. And supply and demand flows.
On the other hand, in the past, local governments have a great dependence on land finance and real estate. At present, the sharp decline in the growth rate of real estate development investment has largely affected GDP and affected local finance. The above researchers said that local governments are expected to gradually get rid of these problems in the process of destocking.
Open up the security room and commercial housing
Many analysts believe that the biggest pain point of China's real estate is high stocks. The industry expects that more policies to stimulate the property market will be introduced in the future.
Since last year, the government has introduced a series of stimulus policies, including interest rate cuts, adjustment of the provident fund policy, reduction of the down payment ratio of commercial loans, and loosening of foreign investment into the property market. Some analysts told this newspaper that although the regulatory policy will not have a big turn, the loosening of policies next year is a high probability event.
It is worth noting that the reform of the affordable housing and shantytowns, which are also important national strategic policies, is expected to be in line with the destocking of the property market. In this year's government work report, Premier Li Keqiang has clearly stated that "turning some stock houses into public rental houses and resettlement houses."
The above-mentioned high-level researchers told reporters that opening up an orbit between the affordable housing and the commercial housing is an innovative regulation of “one stone and many birdsâ€. On the one hand, real estate has the need to go to stocks, and the target of 7.4 million sets of affordable housing in 2015 is also a highlight of the government's livelihood project. The two hit it off; on the other hand, next year is the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Realizing the transformation and upgrading of real estate and solving the housing needs of ordinary people are the requirements for a comprehensive well-off society.
At present, this policy has gradually entered the stage of substantive release. Among them, the monetization compensation and resettlement of shantytowns, which is regarded as a means of providing credit liquidity to the real estate market, has been put in place.
According to the central government's deployment, the National Development Bank has accumulatively allocated a credit line of about 400 billion yuan to the shantytowns and monetization compensation and resettlement during the year. The amount of targeted credit delivery has been basically completed. In terms of the amount of funds, plus the amount of financial support and credit asset securitization pilot replacement, the total amount of funds will reach one trillion yuan.
The above-mentioned researchers said that using market-based methods to solve the supply and demand problem is the most effective and no-sequence method. "This method can also guide real estate inventory to people in need and can improve housing utilization more effectively. ""
Supporting policies are promoted at the same time
In the “annihilation war†of destocking, in addition to the monetization of housing, the supporting package policies including fiscal and taxation and household registration are expected to be intensively next year.
Earlier, the central government had proposed efforts to achieve about 100 million agricultural transfer populations and other permanent residents in urban areas, which is considered to be the direction of policy regulation, will produce long-term positive for real estate destocking. At present, policies such as the reform of the household registration system, the adjustment of family planning policies, the management of rural contracted land, and the pilot transfer of farmer property rights and mortgage loans have been implemented in succession.
In addition, it is reported that the relevant ministries and commissions have existing policy reserves in terms of the management of public funds and taxes on real estate transactions. In order to ensure the effect of the policy, credit policies such as the proportion of down payment for housing purchases and interest rates may also be introduced at the same time.
Guan Qingyou, executive director of the China Minsheng Securities Research Institute, believes that real estate credit and interest rate policies are expected to be further loosened, especially the role of the housing provident fund is expected to be strengthened, and the “National Housing Bank†may be put on a timetable. 