Coal industry may enter the buyer's market

In 2012, the general profits of large-scale coal enterprises in the country suffered a "backlash." Shenhua Group's profits remain the first place, Shandong Energy Group ranks second, and the third place has less than 5 billion yuan in profits. In 2012, when the economy continued to be weak, the gloomy situation in the coal sector was evident.

The data from the China Coal Industry Association shows that in 2012, the national coal output was 3.66 billion tons, which was a year-on-year increase of 4%, and the growth rate was down by 4.7 percentage points year-on-year. The main port of China shipped 620 million tons of coal, a decrease of 5.4%. At the same time, coal imports have increased significantly. In 2012, China imported 289 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while exports decreased by 36.8% year-on-year.

Affected by imports, coal inventories have risen sharply and prices have continued to fall. As of the end of last year, coal enterprises throughout the country stored 85 million tons of coal, an increase of 58%; the major ports stored 43.51 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Qinhuangdao Port 5500 kcal market thermal coal closing price of 630 yuan -640 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year down 170 yuan / ton.

During the Spring Festival, some coal mines in Shandong and other places stopped production and restricted production, but the coal market did not show signs of tightening. According to Li Jihui, a consultant of Shandong Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, the coal economic situation in 2013 is not optimistic. Some people in the business community generally believe that the current economy has not bottomed out and there are complex signs. From the coal market, coal production capacity is gradually being released, and there will be no significant increase in demand. The country will also have to control overall consumption.

From November last year, the current coal price is at a relatively high point. In terms of traditional market conditions, January is the peak season for sales and coal prices are at market peaks. However, with the exception of thermal coal, which rose by about RMB 3 to RMB 5/t, the overall coal price has not basically risen. At present, the power plant deposits coal for 15 days to 20 days and does not worry about coal supply. Su Hongtao expects that it should be a gentle period until March, after which coal prices may decline again. In particular, after the national “**” in late March, the country’s coal production resumed to increase, and coal prices will decline again.

Bo Changsen, chairman of Shandong Energy Group, believes that China's coal industry will be in the buyer's market for a long time. The second three years of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is the period of concentrated release of coal production capacity. It is estimated that an average of 400 million tons to 500 million tons of production capacity will be released each year, while the annual consumption increase is only about 200 million tons. The situation of oversupply is very severe. In addition, starting from 2011, more than 200 million tons of imported coal will be injected into the country each year, which will directly lead to the transfer of coal from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market. In the seller's market, the advantages and disadvantages of possessing resources, the level of production efficiency, and the quality of cost control may be a problem of “making more earning”. Under the buyer's market, the above factors have become the problem of "determination of life and death."

The harsh reality has forced coal companies to push forward business model innovation. For example, Shandong Energy Group has established the first energy and mineral trading center in China. Customers with an annual demand of less than 20,000 tons will be included in online transactions. At present, 49 varieties have been included in the scope of centralized procurement. The annual procurement of 650 million yuan, reducing procurement costs of 29.45 million yuan. Last year, this company sold 71 million tons of coal and created a synergistic benefit of 1.33 billion yuan.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “Coal Industry Policy”. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, new 300,000-ton/year high gassy mines and coal below 450,000 tons/year and gas outburst mines will be banned. This also lays a foundation for the further integration of coal resources in the future. The coal industry believes that after a round of major consolidation from 2008 to the present, the coal industry will enter the period of oligopoly competition.

In 2011, the output of 7 million-ton-class enterprises in the country exceeded 1 billion tons, accounting for about 30% of the country's total coal production; the number of coal enterprises that produced over 10 million tons in the country totaled 55, and the output was 2.54 billion tons, accounting for 72.2 of the national total output. %, the industry is expected to further increase the proportion in 2012 "With the increase in industrial concentration and the arrival of market inflection point, the market competition will be mainly carried out between large coal groups, the competition will be more lasting and more brutal. The coal industry will also ebb tide, The stronger the stronger, the weaker the weaker, and some companies with low efficiency and poor resource conditions will be eliminated.” Bu Changsen said.

At present, China's coal production capacity is seriously in excess. In the past decade, the high investment, high output, and high profitability development model will be difficult to sustain. The coal industry will be driven by the past investment and enter the stage of innovation drive. The industry structure formed during the golden decade will gradually loosen, and enterprises will gradually The competition of output and scale has turned to innovation ability. Through technological and business model innovations, providing customers with more efficient, convenient, and diverse value-added services will become the core issue of improving market competitiveness.

In addition to the excess capacity of coal itself, changes in the world's energy structure will also have an impact on the coal industry. The development of new energy sources and the elimination of outdated production capacity have become the trend of the times, and the proportion of coal and other fossil energy resources in the energy consumption structure will continue to decrease. By 2020, China's non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, and CO2 emissions will be 40%-45% lower than in 2005. According to the estimation of the National Energy Administration, the total coal consumption in China in 2030 is estimated to be 4.8 billion tons, accounting for 55% of the total primary energy from the 64% in 2010.

At present, China's economy has entered a period of rapid growth, and industry insiders expect that a 3%-5% increase in coal supply can meet the needs of the national economy. The actual growth of coal production in the “12th Five-Year Plan” of the major domestic coal enterprises is above 15%. Therefore, in order to prevent the situation of serious excess in the coal market from further deterioration, the state should increase the guidance of the plan and release the production quota.