Multiple suppression of copper prices face a callback
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Global liquidity loose temporary differentiation
At present, the reality and expectations of the continued economic easing of developed economies are changing. The Fed’s December meeting minutes and comments by some Fed members made the market worried about the possibility of the Fed’s possible withdrawal from bond purchases in 2013. In addition, it is reported that about 278 of the 523 banks applying for the first round of LTRO will repay the loan of 137.2 billion euros on January 30, accounting for 28% of the total amount of the first round of loans. And then the bank can continue to repay. This means that the European Central Bank will become the first central bank to shrink the balance sheet of the United States, Europe, Britain and Japan in the four core central banks. Of course, the infinite amount of easing that the Bank of Japan has just adopted and the Bank of England’s suggestion that follow-up have also produced expectations of a global currency competitive devaluation.
However, the situation of unanimous easing before the developed countries is changing. The European Central Bank is shrinking its balance sheet. Although the process is passive and reversible, global liquidity is re-differentiating. Since easing has been going on for many years, its driving force for commodities is diminishing in marginal utility, but liquidity recovery will only have a greater impact on the commodity market even if the expected liquidity recovery. From the monetary environment alone, the author believes that the current environment has deteriorated from the previous period of the intermediate round of copper price rebound.
Low purchasing willingness during the off-season
Although the overall recovery of the Chinese and American economies has been good since the third and fourth quarters of last year, this improvement is obviously not strong enough, and it has not significantly boosted copper consumption. It is understood that the orders of various copper companies in China in December last year and early January this year have not improved, and some enterprises are still weakening. Especially in the copper rod industry, which accounts for more than half of the copper production, the operating rate fell to 72% from 74% in November last year. This shows that there is no substantial improvement in downstream consumption, and as the copper price rebounds to near the high level of the shock box, the willingness of downstream copper consumer companies to prepare for the pre-holiday is suppressed. However, overall, the pre-holiday stockpile is still weak, and it is difficult to provide support for the copper price.
Trend indicators indicate that copper prices are facing a callback
Technically, the current level of copper price rebound in the current round form MACD top divergence, especially the copper and COMEX copper is more obvious, which shows that the copper price is getting weaker and there is a need for correction.
In addition, from the Xinhu Futures copper price guidance index, copper prices are also facing a greater level of callback pressure. Before and after the crisis, the guiding index, as long as it reached a falling risk line of more than 3, was at least a medium-level decline in the later period, indicating that it has a significant effect on the downward trend of copper prices.
Overall, the factors affecting copper prices by macroeconomics and monetary easing are waning, and there is no substantial change in consumption, which has caused copper prices to face downward pressure in the near future. It is expected that there will be a greater probability of a larger level of decline after the high copper price volatility in the later period. In view of the heavy economic data released from January 25 to February 1 in China, the United States and Europe, if the data is positive, the copper price will still have upward momentum in the short term, and vice versa. For investors, according to the macro information situation, more than one rallies, and the opportunity to empty.