Multi-institutions generally expect China's economy to rebound in the fourth quarter

Many foreign banks issued the latest report predicting that the Chinese economy does not have the risk of a “hard landing” and may start to bottom out in the fourth quarter. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch research report pointed out that strong tourism data shows that worrying about the "hard landing" of the Chinese economy is a concern. The analysis believes that infrastructure construction has improved significantly over the past few years and has had a positive impact on promoting current and future consumption. At the same time, domestic consumers still maintain high confidence in the real estate market and China's economic fundamentals. These factors will help the Chinese economy maintain a relatively high growth rate. Citibank expects that the Chinese economy may rebound in the fourth quarter, and the economic growth this year will reach 7.9%. On the one hand, due to better loan conditions and increased real estate investment, the economic trend in the third quarter is stable, and the agricultural, construction and service industries will show rebounding growth; on the other hand, loose monetary and credit policies will accelerate the implementation of a number of projects. Thereby stimulating economic growth. Barclays Bank’s report shows that China’s economy will maintain steady growth in the coming quarters. Economists believe that economic activity has shown signs of initial stabilization, especially in the rail and real estate industries. The infrastructure investment projects supported by the central government have also improved in terms of financing. Morgan Stanley believes that the newly started fixed-asset investment projects and positive signals from the cement and other raw materials sectors will contribute to steady economic growth. For the future policy direction, most foreign institutions generally say that there will not be much change in the short term. Goldman Sachs issued a report stating that due to the recent central bank's reliance on open market operations to address liquidity reductions, the possibility of lowering the RRR in the next few months is less likely. It is also pointed out that unless there is a sign of a sharp deterioration in the labor market and employment, the policy will not show signs of relaxation in the short term.

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