The rapid development of the automotive industry will return to the rational industry facing reshuffle

China's auto industry will enter an accelerated adjustment period, and some enterprises will be eliminated and merged. Luo Baihui, secretary general of the International Model Association, said that while the scale of production and sales is expanding, the number of enterprises will gradually decrease. In the process of restructuring the industry structure, he believes that it is necessary to adhere to the principle of enterprise-led in fair competition, avoid government franchise, and allow truly competitive enterprises to obtain greater development opportunities. In 2011, China’s car ownership exceeded 100 million for the first time, second only to the United States. But it is also in this year that China's auto market has experienced a 25% rapid growth for a decade, and its annual growth rate has dropped to 2.5%. At the same time, the pressure on overcapacity in the auto industry is very prominent. At the beginning of this year, the "Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Plan 2011-2015" issued by the State Council proposed to increase the industrial concentration of the automotive industry, and gave clear indicators, requiring the concentration of the top 10 companies in the automotive industry to be 82.2% from 2010. Increase to 90% in 2015. It is widely expected in the industry that the rapid development of the automobile industry will return to rationality, and the policy will push for a new round of industrial adjustment. The whole industry will usher in a round of reshuffle. In the future development of China's automobile industry, on the one hand, people will see more mixed and integrated capitals from different ownership systems; on the other hand, enterprises based on local capital, talents, technology and other factors will gain greater Develop opportunities and gradually grow into a global company. Luo Baihui said that in recent years, China's local enterprises, especially private enterprises with local brands, have not only increased their product exports, but also set up production bases overseas. Some enterprises have made significant progress in using foreign high-quality resources. As a hot word in the 2012 "Government Work Report" - the automobile industry, after experiencing the "cold winter" in 2011, the government has become more aware of the problems of industry capacity expansion, mergers and acquisitions, etc., and introduced more active policy measures. , pointing out the direction for the automotive industry in transition. At the same time, the representatives of the "two sessions" have also made suggestions for the development of the automobile industry, and have drawn a magnificent blueprint for China's automobile industry. China’s entry into the automobile society is not always smooth. In 2011, China’s car ownership exceeded 100 million for the first time, second only to the United States, and became the second largest car in the world. However, it was also in this year that the Chinese auto market lasted for 25%. The high-speed growth has come to an abrupt end, and the annual growth rate has dropped to 2.5%. The Chinese auto industry is still facing many pressures from the simultaneous multi-lane growth of various segments of the automobile market, the new development stage of industrial upgrading and transformation, and the pursuit of core competitiveness. This is a good time for a new round of adjustments in the Chinese auto industry. On the whole, various contradictions such as market and technology, scale and connotation, production capacity problems and social problems should be put on the reform agenda. However, to solve this series of problems, policy navigation is needed first. Policy orientation is already very obvious. Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out in the "Government Work Report" that it is necessary to "focus on the automobile, steel, shipbuilding, cement and other industries, control the increment, optimize the stock, promote mergers and acquisitions, and increase industrial concentration and economies of scale." At the same time, "new energy vehicles" is also a term with a high frequency of occurrence. Last year's "Government Work Report" also mentioned new energy vehicles, which is an important direction for the long-term strategy and development of China's auto industry. Faced with disorderly capacity expansion, chaotic mergers and acquisitions, and impulsive policies, the future development path of China's auto industry is becoming more and more confusing. However, judging from the government's policies and determination, this is not only a bottleneck period in the development of China's automobile industry, but also an important period of strategic opportunities. Controlling the Incremental Signal Lights On If the new energy vehicle is a long-term strategy for the Chinese auto industry, then the approach of the car's production capacity to the "alarm line" is an urgent problem. Back in 2009, China's auto market has seen a “spurt” growth under the favorable policy conditions. Many companies represented by Dongfeng Nissan have “eaten losses” due to insufficient production capacity. Since then, under the impetus of the local government, various car companies have rushed to set off a wave of “energy expansion”. The second factory of Dongfeng Nissan Huadu and the second factory of Dongfeng Honda have laid the foundation... Compared with the joint venture brand, the independent brands are not weak. BYD has expanded its capacity by 800,000 units and the Great Wall has increased its production capacity by 500,000 units. Geely has made plans to expand production by more than 1 million units. In 2015, China's auto production capacity will reach 32.5 million. In 2016, China's auto market will be the country with the most oversupply problems among the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Li Weidou, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and general manager of China FAW Group Import and Export Corporation, said that the capacity planning in 2015 exceeded 21 million units, and the capacity planning of the top 12 enterprises reached 40.4 million units. To the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", Chinese cars The capacity of the market is expected to be around 25 million units. Compared with the capacity planning of more than 40 million units, the risk of overcapacity is further increased. “At present, the NDRC has begun to control production capacity, and it is difficult to obtain approval for new joint venture factories. The enterprises already have certain independent research and development capabilities. They have certain R&D capabilities and strengths, and the technical reserves also have a certain foundation. It is much more important to expand the road through technological innovation than to expand. China's auto industry is not big enough, but not strong enough. In the case of limited production capacity, it is crucial to take the road of industrial restructuring and build a car enterprise with 'Chinese characteristics' and capable of representing China's strength.” Platform sharing is better. The merger and reorganization of "big fish eat small fish" has also been mentioned by the government, but this is an effective but difficult road. As early as 2009, the "Detailed Rules for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automobile Industry" issued by the General Office of the State Council clearly pointed out that in China, two or three large-scale enterprise groups with a production and sales scale of more than 2 million vehicles should be formed, and 4 to 5 production and sales scales should be over 100. The number of automobile enterprise groups with a production and sales volume of over 90% of the total number of automobile enterprise groups has been reduced from the current 14 to less than 10. Encourage large auto companies such as FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC and Changan to implement mergers and acquisitions across the country; support auto companies such as BAIC, GAC, Chery and Heavy Duty to implement regional mergers and acquisitions. At the end of 2010, the State Council issued the “Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Plan (2011-2015)”. In the next four years, China will vigorously promote the development of self-owned brand vehicles, encourage advantageous enterprises to implement mergers and acquisitions, and form 3 to 5 large-scale automobile enterprise groups with core competitiveness. The industry concentration of the top 10 enterprises will reach 90%. Under the order of the policy, many domestic enterprises began to act. The reorganization and integration within the China Ordnance Group, the acquisition of Changfeng Automobile by GAC, the marriage of GAC and Gio, and so on. However, there are many cases in which the merger and reorganization has been lost, such as the cooperation between Chery and Jianghuai, and the cooperation between FAW and Brilliance. The above failed cases do not rule out the reasons for local government intervention, but the idea of ​​mergers and acquisitions should be changed. Do not take the old road of the government's 'Langlang match', but should be market-oriented 'free love', and more importantly Cooperation through platform cooperation and technology sharing will be more beneficial for the restructuring of the two sides, which should be better than big fish to eat small fish. At the macro level, the government can raise various standards such as exhaust emissions and fuel consumption, so that those small and medium-sized enterprises with weak technical strength can't go out of their way, and local governments will be eager to get rid of the mess of loss-making enterprises. For a long time, China’s merger and reorganization policy has always ignored the issue of 'how to be merged enterprises'. For business operators, it is indeed unacceptable to be merged. After being merged, where are their interests? This may be the next issue that policymakers should consider. In the past few years, the automobile industry has developed rapidly. It is not only a large-scale industrial group. Even small and medium-sized enterprises with a production capacity of 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles have a good performance, and mergers are naturally difficult to advance. However, at present, China's auto industry has come to a 'quick brake', and the growth rate is slowing down. This should be the best time for the merger and reorganization strategy. New energy policy impulses and technology shortages However, control increments and mergers and acquisitions are not the key way to solve the problems of China's auto industry. A series of social problems such as road congestion and air pollution are increasing with the increase in the number of cars. "If we follow the US 1000-person possession standard, China needs four Earth's energy sources to reach a similar level of energy consumption per capita." Du Xiangyu, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said to the media. In the face of pressure, policy support is unprecedented. On the opening day of the "two sessions", the Ministry of Science and Technology released the "12th Five-Year Special Plan for Electric Vehicle Technology Development (Abstract)", trying to re-establish a clear development direction for China's new energy vehicles. On March 7, the Ministry of Finance promulgated the “Detailed Rules for the Reduction of Vehicle and Vessel Taxes for Energy-Saving or New Energy Vehicles and Vessels”, which is intended to make up for the previous shortcomings. However, the development prospects of new energy vehicles in China do not seem to be optimistic. At least within the government and industry, there is no ambition and impulse to mention five years ago: by 2012, 10% of new cars produced in China will be energy-saving and new energy vehicles. As of the end of 2011, the demonstration city actually operated about 15,000 new energy vehicles, which is not far from the national total demonstration promotion target of 25,000 vehicles, and it is eight-tenths of the 18.5 million vehicle production in 2011. It is not unexpected that such a situation arises. After all, the new energy vehicle is a systematic project. Not only the automobile production enterprises must control the cost, but also master the core battery research and development technology, and the social supporting facilities and industry standards must be coordinated. Under the great attention of the government, the system engineering of new energy vehicles has become more like a car that has been out of control in the past five years. In the disputes over technical routes, competition for infrastructure ownership, and government subsidies, it is impossible to sway. The frustration comes from the triumph of the European, American and Japanese counterparts in the past five years, and the hope of Chinese cars to achieve “curve overtaking” through the new energy route has almost become a phantom. Fuel cells and pure electric vehicles are regarded as the main direction of the development of national new energy vehicles. Ouyang Ming, the head of the national “863 Program” energy-saving and new energy vehicle major project, felt pressured. “We found that the fuel cells that have been considered to be far away, the Japanese have already done enough business. The degree of chemistry. The development of China's new energy vehicles is still stuck in the technical problem. At present, China's fuel cell industry lacks a shaped upstream industrial chain, and most of the key materials and components are imported, resulting in overall dilemma. Many companies need to buy from DuPont in the United States, and key components such as air compressors are often not available for money. This seems to be back to the beginning of the decade of reform and opening up 30 years ago: it is open The market is changing technology, and it is still protecting the market from self-reliance. The former has proved to be a failure, and the latter has not been successful. The difficulties faced by the automobile society are still only solved through technological upgrading and industrial transformation. This method is both a goal and a path.

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