Visiting the hometown of papermaking: the paper shortage crisis continues to buy raw materials from paper enterprises
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The validity period of the imported waste paper approval issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection is the deadline for the end of each year, and the overdue period is considered invalid. Therefore, Fuyang papermakers interviewed by reporters have no hope for the supply of imported waste paper in 2017. Can only expect the 2018 approval to be issued normally, which means that from now on, there will be a vacuum period of about 3 months. In the future, waste paper is definitely lacking.
The paper industry, which has been quiet for nearly a decade, finally broke out in this fall.
Since August, finished papers including corrugated paper, white paper, household paper, newsprint, and coated paper have begun to enter a rising mode. Especially after entering September, the price of paper has risen by a wave, and the frequency of price increases has obviously accelerated. The sharp rise in paper prices has also led to the rise of the A-share papermaking sector. The new term “paper†is hot, and it was recently born in the capital market.
Why is the price of paper so crazy? What is the current status of paper companies? Is the rise sustainable? With many questions, recently, reporters used whiteboard paper as a sample of investigation and rushed to Fuyang, Zhejiang, a domestic whiteboard production base, to conduct an in-depth investigation of the local paper industry.
When the waste paper shortage pushes up the paper price and talks about Fuyang, "Fuchun Mountain Residence" is absolutely inseparable. Many people know Fuyang, but it can be said that it is inseparable from this painting. Like famous paintings, the paper industry has a long history in Fuyang. “Kyoto’s Fuyang Paper, Ten Yuans, and Scholars†is the prosperity of Fuyang’s paper industry, which has earned Fuyang the reputation of “the hometown of papermakingâ€. .
It is understood that as early as the Eastern Jin Dynasty, Fuyang people began to use the tender bamboo as raw material to produce the ancient paper called "bamboo paper". After thousands of years of exploration and development, in the 1990s, the production scale of Fuyang Paper Industry grew at a geometric level. In the heyday, there were nearly 500 papermaking enterprises, of which white paper was the mainstay, and Fuyang became the largest whiteboard paper base in China. .
Starting from Hangzhou South, it takes less than half an hour to drive along the Hangqian Expressway to reach Chunjiang Street, the largest gathering area of ​​Fuyang Papermaking Enterprise. When the car enters this paper-making town, the imprint of "the hometown of bamboo paper" will gradually increase. At the same time, strange smells will come.
Mr. Sun, who has been engaged in the paper industry for more than ten years, is currently the deputy general manager of a paper company in Fuyang. The size of his company is medium in this paper-making town with a production capacity of about 300,000 tons/year. Although Mr. Sun has been in the paper industry for many years, his current paper mill was established in 2013. After two years of construction, it was officially put into operation in 2015.
In Mr. Sun’s own words, the company caught up with the good times. In terms of investment cost, the construction period of the factory is almost the cheapest when all kinds of raw materials, such as steel, the price has reached 1600-1700 yuan / ton. At the trial production in 2015, the price of finished paper rebounded slightly due to the implementation of environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction policies. By the end of 2016, the paper industry, which had been in the doldrums for nearly a decade, finally ushered in a long-lost rise.
According to reports, from November 2016 to February 2017, in just three months, the paper price of Fuyang white paper rose from 2,700 yuan / ton to 3,400 - 3,500 yuan / ton. However, the long-lost rising price of paper has not lasted for too long, and it began to turn down again in March 2017. By the end of July this year, the price of whiteboard paper has been around 3,000 yuan / ton.
For the wave of paper prices in 2016, Mr. Sun’s view is that environmental protection policies have a significant impact on capacity contraction, and there are multiple factors such as overlapping demand seasons. The operation of “Low Small†paper mills is not standardized, and there is basically no environmental protection treatment cost. . According to the practice of these "low-small" paper mills, the standard paper-making enterprises will certainly not be able to hold back. The closure of a large number of “low-small†paper mills has enabled capacity to be compressed.
Recently, the "paper" that frequently appeared in newspapers was hot, starting in August. Taking whiteboard paper as an example, the price has risen from the beginning of 3,000 yuan / ton to the current 4,500 yuan / ton. “Especially since September, the price of paper has risen relatively fast, and the price has been adjusted once in 3 or 4 days. It has been adjusted three times this month.†Frequent price adjustments have made the papermaker who has been in business for more than ten years, “calling†can not read it".
In the past August, Fuyang's paper-making enterprises also experienced a round of overall limited production and maintenance. A Notice on Launching the Emergency Plan for Energy Saving and Consumption Reduction in Fuyang District in 2017 shows that Fuyang requires all papermaking enterprises in the jurisdiction to stop production inspection for 7 days.
Judging from public media reports and brokerage research reports, environmental factors are the main reason for the external review of this round of paper prices. However, in the view of some Fuyang paper mills, the above statement is too general and does not address the key points of the problem.
For the rapid rise in paper prices since August, Mr. Sun said, “It’s related to environmental factors. After all, in August, environmental protection inspectors, some paper companies suspended production. However, this correlation is not very large, mainly due to waste paper. Caused by the waste."
Like the above point of view, Mr. Jin, who was interviewed by reporters, recognized the factors that helped the environmental protection inspectors, but blamed the waste paper shortage. The paper company under the leadership of Mr. Jin is a large-scale papermaking enterprise in Fuyang. It has more than ten paper-making enterprises and a total production capacity of 1.2 million tons per year, accounting for nearly one-sixth of the output of Fuyang Paper Industry.
The paper shortage crisis traced back to the source In August 2017, the Central Environmental Protection Inspector Group conducted environmental protection inspections for about one month in eight provinces and cities including Zhejiang, Shandong and Jilin. From a point of view, the time of the environmental inspector overlaps with the current round of paper price increases. However, Fuyang Papermaking Co., blamed the fuse of the current round of paper prices on another special inspection by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in July.
"This wave of increase, although it is also an environmental factor, is mainly the inspection by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of 1,792 imported waste processing and utilization enterprises nationwide." Mr. Sun said.
It is understood that in early July, the Ministry of Environmental Protection conducted centralized training for 420 law enforcement personnel from 27 provinces (cities). After the training, 60 inspection teams were formed to implement a one-month special action against environmental violations of import waste processing and utilization enterprises nationwide. "This operation was carried out in a cross-country and territorial cooperation manner. Law enforcement personnel in Zhejiang Province were dispatched to the northern provinces and cities." Fuyang locals said.
According to the report of the Ministry of Environmental Protection website on July 30, as of July 29, the on-site inspection of the special action against environmental violations in the process of importing waste processing and utilization has basically ended, and a total of 1,792 enterprises have been inspected. Among them, 1074 companies were proposed to file a case for punishment, accounting for 60% of the total number of inspection enterprises.
What is the relationship between the waste paper shortage and the special inspection of the Ministry of Environmental Protection in July? Mr. Sun said that according to past practice, in the middle of each month, the Ministry of Environmental Protection will review a batch of “imported waste paper approvalsâ€. However, during the course of this special action, there was no further approval. Since July, no approval has been issued. As a result, the supply of imported waste paper has shrunk.
During the interview, the reporter also saw an approval for imported paper waste that is now “precious†for paper mills. The paper mill said, “The total amount of imported waste paper in this approval is 5,000 tons. Since the imported paper is purchased from abroad every month in the first half of the year, only 100 tons of surplus paper can be used. After using this, Gone."
Not only did the imported waste paper approvals not be issued, but the approvals issued by some enterprises were also recycled. Mr. Jin said that “in the Fuyang area, 70,000 tons of imported waste paper approvals were collected. After the amount of imported waste paper was turned over, everyone knows that there is a problem with the supply of imported waste paper.â€
What does imported waste paper mean for domestic paper companies? Pulp is the raw material of papermaking. It is mainly divided into wood pulp, waste paper pulp and non-wood pulp according to the source of raw materials. China's pulp production capacity can not meet market demand, and it has a high dependence on foreign countries.
According to the China Paper Association, in 2016, China's total pulp consumption was 97.97 million tons. Among them, 28.77 million tons of wood pulp, 63.29 million tons of waste paper pulp, and 5.91 million tons of non-wood pulp. From the pulp source, 18.81 million tons of wood pulp consumption was imported, accounting for 65.07%; in the waste paper pulp, imported waste paper raw material pulping 23.08 million tons, accounting for 36.47%.
Raw materials purchase hunger for waste paper For the paper industry, it is industrial grain and raw materials for production. How long has the impact of the imported waste paper approvals on paper mills? The answer given by the reporter in Fuyang is that the raw material shortage has become quite common.
In Chinese history, Cai Lun is definitely a resounding name because he is closely associated with papermaking in one of China's four major inventions. Although Cai Lun was not born in Fuyang, the paper industry linked the two. Fuyang people named the most concentrated main road of the local paper mill as “Cai Lun Luâ€, which is not difficult to see the prosperity of the local paper industry.
In Fuyang, a paper-making town, Cai Lun Road is a main road with a length of several kilometers. There are also several winding roads on both sides. Large and small paper mills are laid out along these roads. Perhaps because the odor of the paper mill is too heavy, the administrative office building of Fuyang Paper Mill is basically close to the road.
“Waste paper raw materials, it’s really rare now.†Here, Mr. Sun got up and walked to the window. "Originally, the waste paper was piled up on the roadside downstairs. Now you look at it, even the warehouse inside the paper mill is empty. The waste paper stock in our factory is about 18,000 tons at the most. Now the waste paper The reserves are around 8,500 tons, of which about 6,000 tons of imported waste paper and less than 2,500 tons of domestic waste paper."
Perhaps because the waste paper is not worth the money, the warehouses of some paper mills in Fuyang can also see one or two on the road. However, whether it is visiting the factory of the paper mill or overlooking the road, the warehouse of the paper mill is now out of stock. In some enterprises' waste paper warehouses, the piled waste paper is almost negligible.
During the field visit, a paper mill staff said that the waste paper was not afraid of rain and there was no shelf life. In the past, when the market was not good, waste paper was piled up in the warehouse, in the open space of the factory, and even in the idle land outside the factory. Now I will know it at a glance, basically it is empty.
Paper mills are making raw materials, which will naturally lead to the rush of waste paper. The price of waste paper is generally 1150-1200 yuan/ton. When it was the most expensive last year, the Fuyang area reached 1950 yuan/ton. However, in March-April 2017, following the price of finished paper, it fell back to 1030 yuan / ton. However, since May, the price of waste paper has started to rise. Recently, the price has reached 2,800 yuan / ton, in other regions, the price of A-grade waste paper has exceeded 3,000 yuan / ton.
"It turns out that the price of waste paper has risen to 2,000 yuan / ton, and it will definitely not be acquired. But now it is different. Before the approval of imported waste paper is not clear, paper companies only have to rob domestic waste paper." The price of yellow paper has skyrocketed. Let Mr. Sun feel surprised.
It is understood that in order to collect waste paper sources, some paper companies in Fuyang have already set up a waste paper procurement team. In addition, from the point of view of the purchase price, in addition to the acquisition at the market price, additional incentives will be given. The more waste papers shipped from other places, the more rewards they will be. The general practice is to increase the price by 30 yuan/ton.
Of course, in this round of waste paper buying, some paper mills have also encountered unspeakable hidden. From time to time, paper mills encounter dealers to do other things into the waste paper, such as scrap iron, water, and so on. Why is this chaos? In the past, when paper mills purchased waste paper, they would carefully check them; and scrap iron prices were expensive and they were not willing to stuff them into waste paper. But now it is different, everyone is rushing to buy waste paper. If you are still hesitant about this car waste paper, seriously check it, others may have already snatched it.
Large-scale paper enterprises usually have their own pulp mills. In ordinary small paper mills, the pulp needed can only be purchased. In Fuyang, the number of pulp mills is about 6-7. As an essential raw material for papermaking, the paper mill's need for pulp is equally eager.
When the reporter visited, he encountered a truck loaded with pulp and stopped at the gate of the paper mill. The truck driver said that the normal work started from 7:00 in the morning, and now everyone is out of stock. He was called by the boss to pick up the paper at 3 or 4 in the morning. Even so, the number of trucks per day has been reduced by a third.
Some subtle changes can also be seen in the shortage of pulp. The truck driver said that the rest of the matter, you can see the water content of the pulp. Now, the paper mill has relaxed a lot of requirements for the pulp mill. In the past, the pulp that was shipped out of the pulp mill could stand up directly. Now step on it, it must be stuck in, and the moisture content is too high.
The words of the truck driver let the reporter understand why driving in this paper-making town, the road is full of wetness. The truck that was docked at the door of the paper mill, the water in the pulp, was leaking out. The truck driver said, "You have to wait until the water has dried before you can drive into the warehouse, otherwise it will affect the stacking of other pulp."
More crazy in the fourth quarter?
Since August, the ex-factory price of white cardboard has risen from 3,000 yuan to 4,500 yuan in just one month, an increase of 50%. Such a sharp trend has caused many Fuyang papermakers to call "unprecedented."
So, is the current paper price not expensive? Mr. Sun took the white card paper of Fuyang as an example and calculated the account for the reporter. Generally speaking, to produce one ton of finished paper, it needs 450 yuan of chemical raw materials, 250 yuan of electricity, 200 yuan of steam, 100 yuan of artificial wages, 70 yuan of sewage charges, 30 yuan of garbage disposal fee, 50 yuan of items, 20 yuan of packaging materials, The tax is 150 yuan. In addition, there are financial fees and venue rental fees.
According to Mr. Sun, the cost of producing one ton of finished paper by the paper mill is about 1,500-1600 yuan/ton. The waste paper raw material of whiteboard paper is yellow board paper. The current purchase price of yellow board paper is 2800 yuan/ton. The two costs add up to about 4,300 - 4,400 yuan / ton. At present, white card paper on the market sells 4,500 yuan / ton, earning 100-200 yuan per ton, but it is already a very good market for papermaking enterprises with hundreds of thousands of tons of capacity.
“There is no doubt that paper prices in this round of rising process are waste paper leading the rise of finished paper.†However, Mr. Sun also pointed out that the market demand for finished paper should not be so strong now. Buying up and not buying down is a Chinese tradition. Seeing the rising trend of paper prices, intermediaries will naturally reluctantly sell goods, which will intensify the tight relationship between supply and demand of finished paper.
For the next stage of the paper price trend, Fuyang paper industry people's views are almost identical. For example, Mr. Jin, who controls Fuyang's nearly 1/6 production capacity, said in an interview that in terms of inventory, the inventory of the subsidiaries of the group is about 1,000 tons per company. Such inventory is already rare.
However, compared with the inventory, Fuyang paper companies are more worried about the supply of imported waste paper. Mr. Sun said that from now until the end of this year, the tension of waste paper raw materials can be seen. If the Ministry of Environmental Protection is now releasing the approval of imported waste paper, the domestic paper mill may solve some of the raw materials by increasing the price of imported waste paper, but it will not ease the contradiction between supply and demand. “Re-shipment is too late. According to past practice, importing waste paper takes a three-month period. At this time, the risk of placing an order is too large, and it is impossible to place a large number of orders.â€
How did the 3-month purchase cycle come from? Mr. Sun explained that after obtaining the approval of the imported waste paper, it takes 7 days to open the letter of credit and then place an order with the foreign waste paper purchaser. It takes time to stock up abroad. If it is normal, it takes 1 month. It takes more than 1 month to go on the sea. In this way, it takes about 3 months from the purchase to the import of waste paper to the shore.
The key point is that the validity period of the imported waste paper approval issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection is the deadline for the end of each year, and the overdue period is considered invalid. Therefore, Fuyang papermakers interviewed by reporters have no hope for the supply of imported waste paper this year. Mr. Jin said that now, I can only expect the approval of the 2018 document to be issued normally. This means that there will be a vacuum period of about 3 months from now on. In the future, waste paper is definitely lacking.
Perhaps the expectation of waste paper shortage is relatively certain. At present, domestic waste paper dealers are also reluctant to sell. A paper-making company said, "Yellow board, originally our company can receive 300 tons a day, and now only receive more than 100 tons a day. Such purchases are still exchanged after the price rises, which is obviously not normal."
"Now the highest price of yellow paper is 3,000 yuan / ton, and will soon break through to 3,500 yuan / ton." Mr. Jin said that at present, the paper mill has a little surplus, one is inventory, and the other is still unused. The amount of imported waste paper. In September and October, the supply of waste paper will be relatively better. However, it has become tense in this way, and to what extent it will be tense in November and December, it is hard to imagine now.
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