Construction Securities (12.30): Copper and Aluminum

The "Risk Warning" section of the magazine aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It is used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to trade according to their own short-term midlines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The period price is the reverse of the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risk: ☆ Tip: Eastern: Copper: Yesterday, LME March copper showed a trend of high volatility, due to the dollar rally due to the dollar's rally, copper prices fell for a time, but speculative buying appeared in the late 3100 dollar make the late copper price Once again, the price rose to US$3118.5/ton, which was a US$24.5/ton increase from the previous trading day. The fluctuation ranged from 3132.5 to 3094.5 US$/ton. LME copper stocks were flat yesterday. The U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. home sales rose 2.7% month-on-month to reach an annual rate of 6.94 million U.S. dollars. It should be said that this figure is better, and that real estate is the main consumer channel for copper, although the market expects that U.S. economy may slow down in 2005. However, the strong real estate data will undoubtedly provide arguments for the strong demand for copper. Judging from the current trend of copper prices, the price of copper has reached a critical moment. The US dollar is likely to form a small double bottom in the short-term after the new low, which will have an adverse impact on copper prices. Yesterday, the domestic copper exhibited a trend of bottoming out. The 503 contract closed at the high point on December 22, and after the copper price hit a new high, there was little room for further rise. Yesterday, the spot price rose slightly, at 30,700 to 30,800 yuan/ton, and a small amount of short-selling could be started on the operation. Aluminium: Affected by the 5% tax on China’s aluminum exports, LME aluminum continued to rise sharply in March and hit a new high in nearly nine years. From the perspective of aluminum prices, it has broken through the major triangle finishing and is now moving toward a new box. The upper edge of the operation, the short-term resistance at the front line of 2,000 US dollars, while the early rise in copper prices, but the relatively small increase in the price of aluminum, the price difference between the two has reached a historically rare position, and now there is a rise in aluminum prices A certain amount of compensatory growth. The domestic Shanghai aluminum exhibited a turbulent trend yesterday and rebounded after dropping to the 5-day moving average. From the perspective of the recent trend of aluminum prices, the changes in the domestic aluminum market will start around the 5-day moving average, and the operation should grasp the 5-day moving average. Make short-term intraday trading. Yesterday, the domestic spot price was 16360 ~ 16380 yuan / ton. Ma Hongqing: After the LME copper price period, it was oscillating on the previous trading day. Faced with the high price of aluminum, the copper market bulls looked hesitant. The trend of the US dollar showed us a possible stage bottom. If this becomes In fact, the reliance on copper prices at historical high levels will be lost. However, in terms of domestic spot prices, the futures volatility will continue to maintain until they fall below 28500/29000. Investors are advised to wait and see or empty 10% of the funds. Shanghai CUCU CU is expected to stay within the range of 28500/28700 on Thursday. It may move to 28300 in the next gear. Investors may consider setting up a few short positions around 28700. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London December 29 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals futures mostly closed higher on Wednesday, the period aluminum jumped to a new high of nine and a half years, leading the gains. Traders said that China's import and export The details of the changes in the tax period support aluminum prices higher. China will levy a 5% tariff on raw aluminum and aluminum alloy imports from January 1 next year, which may reduce the supply of aluminum in Western markets. Three-month aluminum prices are reported at The US$1,957 per tonne was a semi-annual new record high of US$1,917 last Friday. The change in aluminum inventories also supported aluminum, LME aluminum stocks fell by 1,550 tons, and the International Aluminum Association (IAI) reported that aluminum manufacturers’ inventories stood at 3.058 million in November. The tonnage fell to 3.032 million tons. Traders said that the market ignored the strengthening of the US dollar on Wednesday, as the overall economic fundamentals still showed the long-term weakness of the US dollar. In early trading in New York, the euro weakened against the US dollar to 1.3587 US dollars, compared to the earlier set of 1.3646 US dollars. The record high fell about 0.5 cents. LME copper rose sharply, following the US COMEX copper gains on Tuesday, but the gains stopped at around 3,120/3,130 U.S. dollars. Three-month copper closed at 3,125 U.S. dollars, up from 3,075 last Friday. Point to October The high of 3,175. Three-month zinc rose to 1,243 US dollars, reported 1,208 last Friday, is expected to once again challenge the recent high 1,245. Three-month lead rose 11 US dollars to 960 US dollars. Three-month nickel rose from 14,700 US dollars. To 15,205, LME nickel stocks fell by 234 tons today, but three-month tin fell from 7,875 US$ to 7,750, which is expected to stabilize after being sold by the market last week. COMEX Copper Market Report: New York Dec. 29 news: New York Commodity Futures Trading The (COMEX) copper closed lower on Wednesday. Traders said that the market has followed the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper's response to the US dollar's rebound. "Overall, the market conditions were light, the US dollar was weaker in early trading, and the copper period for the incentive period was higher. But then the US dollar. Stronger, leading traders to sell the copper." A trader said. The March contract closed about 0.80 cents lower at 1.4450 US dollars per pound, the volatility ranged from 1.4330 to 1.4530. The spot January contract fell 0.85 cents to close at 1.4825 pound per pound. In the US, the rest of the month's contract fell 0.80-1.35 cents. The estimated trading volume was 12,000 lots, higher than Tuesday's 7,253 lots. The COMEX will be closed before midday on Thursday and closed all day on Friday. Traders said that London Market participants sell copper after the dollar strengthens Follow-up selling here. The US dollar is gaining strength today as some foreign exchange dealers lock in profits against other currencies before the end of the year, but the US dollar is still expected to decline in the long term. LME stocks remained unchanged on Wednesday, at 50,250 tons. COMEX copper stocks also remained flat at 47,240 short tons.

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