It is expected that the global demand of the machine tool industry will continue to be repeated in the future.
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We see that the PMIs of the major economies of the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan have all recovered to more than 50 expansion zones, with the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan maintaining more than 50 consecutive 11 months, 9 months, and 12 months, respectively, and June. PMI has declined to varying degrees. At present, the European debt crisis has caused huge uncertainties in global economic growth. We believe that although the export of domestic machine tool products is obvious, the future export growth is still very fragile.
Due to the impact of the financial crisis, the monthly output of metal cutting machine tools and the monthly output of CNC metal cutting machine tools fell sharply in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. In the second half of 2009, the output of the industry gradually recovered and the growth rate gradually accelerated. The monthly output of metal cutting machine tools has reached a record high, and the confidence of related machine tool manufacturers in the recovery of downstream demand has increased significantly.
We see that Japan's forging machinery domestic demand has been repeated in April and May, while China and Europe's machine tool orders have declined in May, and the North American market is basically flat in May and April. It can be seen that the current global economy still has greater uncertainty. At the same time, affected by the European debt crisis, governments have increased their efforts to reduce spending, which further increases the uncertainty of global economic recovery. We expect that the global demand for the machine tool industry will continue to be repeated in the future.
After a round of adjustments in the machine tool industry, the current industry performance is in a gradual recovery stage. Considering the future growth of the industry and the related product structure adjustment and profitability of leading companies, combined with the valuation of listed companies in relevant international industries, we believe that the industry is reasonable PE in 2010. Between 25-30 times, after the stock price has been adjusted in the second quarter, the current industry valuation level is attractive. We maintain the industry's “overweight†rating, with a focus on Shenyang Machine Tool, Qinchuan Development and Kunming Machine Tool.
