Polysilicon prices are expected to rush to $100 during the year

The reporter was informed that the polysilicon market has continued to be hot, and many solar cell manufacturers report that the current purchase of polysilicon in the market has become very difficult, and even "a single hard to find," the price of polysilicon has recently come to a halt. For this reason, industry insiders expect that more than $100/kg in the future is just around the corner.

At the same time, many polysilicon manufacturers find that orders received by them are far larger than their own production capacity, and many polysilicon manufacturers have begun to expand production. Although there are hot flashes in the upper reaches of the solar cell industry, some battery manufacturers have seen cold prices rising. Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Wuxi Suntech, said that at present, there is no market support for rising polysilicon prices.

Polysilicon is in short supply

At present, a quarter of China's polysilicon production capacity is distributed in Sichuan, and Leshan's polysilicon production capacity accounts for 80% of Sichuan's. Here, there are concentrated heavyweights such as Shin Kong Silicon, LeTV Tianwei, Sichuan Yongxiang and Dongqi. enterprise.

However, the China Securities Journal reporter was informed in the interview that many polysilicon producers not only had full orders in their hands, but also had limited ability to continue supplying polysilicon to the market. Among them, LeTV Tianwei and Xinguang Silicon have been locked by long polysilicon, and the supply of polysilicon that can be produced in the market is limited. In addition, Jiangsu Zhongneng started in September this year, its production of polysilicon mainly to meet their own production of solar wafers, one or two silicon materials are basically no longer marketed, only a small amount of three silicon materials used to meet the old Customer demand. According to a person from the relevant company in LDK, the silicon material produced by the company is also mainly to meet its own production.

However, after the solar cell manufacturers experienced a large-scale expansion, the demand for silicon wafers greatly increased. Many wafer manufacturers have increased production through increased production, and the direct raw material for silicon wafers is polysilicon, which directly leads to polysilicon. Hard to find. Analysts said that this has led to a situation in which the supply of polysilicon is in short supply has no suspense during the year, and the expansion of production of solar cell downstream manufacturers has led directly to the continued strong demand for polysilicon.

Polysilicon prices are diverging

It is understood that the polysilicon market price has exceeded 90 US dollars / kg, analysts expect the polysilicon price in the second half broke 100 US dollars / kg almost no suspense.

In 2007, international polysilicon prices had rapidly dropped from the high of 400-500 US dollars/kg to 40-50 US dollars/kilogram, and now the sharp rise has occurred again. However, the market still has some differences on the follow-up price trend of polysilicon.

Optimists predict that polysilicon will not make the same mistake as it did in 2008. In the next three to five years, global polysilicon demand will increase to 1 million tons, which is about ten times now.

Shi Zhengrong believes that the current global photovoltaic terminal market prices are falling. In July, Germany's on-grid electricity prices fell by about 15%, and next year it should also be reduced by 10%. To maintain this market, the cost of solar power must continue to fall, the entire industry chain The cost will fall and the current rise in polysilicon prices is unsustainable. In spite of this, many silicon wafer manufacturers are facing the current rise in polysilicon prices, and they are trying to reduce costs by signing up for polysilicon long-term orders.

Analysts said that the global polysilicon production in 2010 is expected to be approximately 102,000 tons, with a demand of 117,000 tons. The overall balance between supply and demand will have a slight gap. It is estimated that the global demand for polysilicon in 2011 will reach 144,000 tons, and the polysilicon production in 2011 will be 152,000 tons, a basic balance between supply and demand, for slightly more than demand, and polysilicon prices may turn around in 2011.