Pressured by international oil prices escalated refined oil prices once again increased sharply

On April 6, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that from the midnight on the following day, the domestic retail price of refined oil products has been raised, with the increase in gasoline being 500 yuan per ton, which is the second largest price adjustment since 2009; 400 yuan / ton, the third largest price adjustment in 2009; about the gasoline price 0.37 yuan / liter, diesel price 0.34 yuan / liter.

This is the second time this year, China has adjusted the retail price of refined oil products, and has also made domestic refined oil prices record highs.

Xia Wang energy analyst Liao Kaijun pointed out that the two product oil prices this year happened to be raising interest rates, the timing of the choice is more clever, do not rule out this is the government intends to.

"The rise in international oil prices is import inflation. The government cannot afford to top it anyway. It will sooner or later rise; but if interest rates are increased in advance, the inflationary expectations of the market can be adjusted, thereby offsetting to some extent the pressure of rising oil prices on CPI," he said. .

On April 6th, the main contract of Nymex reached a maximum of US$108.6/barrel, hitting a new high of two and a half years; and the weighted average price of continuous crude oil movements in the three places increased by 14.13% compared with the previous price adjustment.

Detailed breakdown of previous national oil price adjustments by the National Development and Reform Commission since 2009, 4 reductions and 10 increases (including upturns on April 7th). Gasoline rose by 3,000 yuan/ton, and diesel rose by 2,760 yuan/ton.

Forced price increases The last time the oil price adjustment was February 20 this year, only over the past month.

"Actually, under the existing pricing mechanism, price adjustments should have been launched within half a month ago." said Zhong Jian, vice-president of CBI, "It is only taking into consideration the operating rate of oil for spring farming, industrial infrastructure and other industries, and domestic inflation. The pressure brought about and the factors of the Ching Ming Holidays, etc., the price adjustment will be formally implemented until today."

According to him, after the crisis in Libya, international oil prices showed a surge.

The average price of Brent crude oil in March was $114/barrel, which was an increase of $12/barrel from the average price of the previous month, while oil prices in Xinta and Dubai also increased in varying degrees. According to the "Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)", it is clearly stated that when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be adjusted accordingly. As of April 5, the weighted average price of continuous movements of crude oil in the three places has risen by 14.13% compared with the previous price adjustment.

When answering a reporter's question, the NDRC also pointed out that in recent days, oil prices in the international market have continued to soar due to the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, especially Libya. In early March, prices of US West Texas crude oil and British North Sea Brent crude oil prices reached US$105 and US$116 per barrel, respectively, the highest since the end of September 2008, and then continued at US$100 and US$110 per barrel. The above high run. Most agencies predict that the impact of political turmoil in Libya on the oil market will not be eliminated in the short term, and that the demand for oil from Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction and alternative nuclear power may increase significantly. In the coming days, oil prices in the international market will continue to show high levels of performance.

"Rising oil prices are imported inflation. If the government can digest the oil companies by suppressing profits of oil companies as they have done in the past, it will probably trigger oil shortages that have occurred several years ago. Therefore, the government is right to adjust prices." Some Sinopec sources said.

According to Zhong Jian, even after the price adjustment, refineries including PetroChina and Sinopec are facing unprofitable situations. “The cost of crude oil in April rose by more than 800 yuan/ton (about US$10/barrel) before the increase in oil prices in early February. After the last price adjustment, the refinery digested 350 yuan/ton, leaving 500 yuan/ton left. The pressure on raw material costs will rise around. After this price adjustment, refineries will be unprofitable after deducting operating costs."

But 500 yuan. / Tons of gains, this is already the price limit that the central government can accept.

“We have found that since the beginning of this year, interest rate hikes and step-by-step adjustment of refined oil products have been basically the same.” Liao Kaiying analyzed: “The government’s thinking may be: raise interest rates first, send signals to the market to curb inflation, and then adjust oil prices to achieve impact hedges. Minimize the impact of this type of imported inflation."

Reuters reported on April 6 that central bank officials recently stated that the situation of excess liquidity this year is difficult to ease. The pressure on the central bank to hedge gambling accounts and the amount of public market maturity has increased, and the domestic inflation situation is not optimistic.

“According to estimates, if you want to ensure the interests of refineries, then the rate of increase should reach 800 yuan / ton, but this is certainly not acceptable to the government," Zhong Jian said.

The adjustable profit chain “does not drive, and it has contributed to the oil giants.” Many people on the same day reprinted these words on Weibo.

Compared with the total profit announced in the 2010 annual report, consumers will inevitably question the motivation of PetroChina and Sinopec to shout “loss”. The previous annual report disclosed that in 2010, Sinopec’s total profit reached 70.7 billion yuan, while PetroChina’s profit reached 139.8 billion yuan.

“While the recent rise in international oil prices has put pressure on their refining processes, their profits are still very high from the perspective of the industry chain. Even if only the refinery and sales are counted, the gross profit can reach hundreds of tons per ton. Yuan, this point can be directly supported by the sales data of Shandong refining,” said Zhong Jian.

Data from S.Wang Energy shows:

On April 1st, the average price of 93 # petrol for gasoline in Shandong was RMB 8,725/ton, and the local retail price limit for 93# gasoline reached RMB 9,376/ton, and the spread between the two was RMB 651/ton; on April 2nd, 90 # Ex-factory price of petrol in Zhejiang Province is only RMB 7980/ton, while the local retail price limit for 90# gasoline reaches RMB 8890/ton, the price difference between the two is RMB 910/ton; on April 5th, #93 gasoline Shandong The average price of ex-factory refining was 8,925 yuan/ton, and the local retail price limit of 93# gasoline reached 9,906 yuan/ton after the price increase the next day. The spread between the two prices reached 981 yuan/ton.

The spread of several hundred dollars per ton is the profit of traders.

"Since PetroChina and Sinopec have controlled the complete oil industry chain, the current loss of its refinery should be that its sales segment has obtained a huge profit margin." Zhong Jian said.

According to a number of reporters' inquiries, the gross profit space for sales of PetroChina and Sinopec is still not confirmed. However, it can be confirmed that PetroChina and Sinopec, both enjoying the crude oil import tax exemption policy and possessing the advantages of crude oil processing load and industrial concentration, should not have higher refining costs than Shandong refineries.

Then when the refining chain shouted losses, has its sales segment obtained a spread of several hundred yuan or even nearly one thousand yuan per ton?

In the latest price adjustment in February, the National Development and Reform Commission made it clear in the price adjustment document that PetroChina and Sinopec should play an internal regulatory role in upstream and downstream interests of oil companies to ensure supply in the refined oil market. It is necessary to give full play to the role of the “adjustment mechanism for upstream and downstream interests of oil companies” that has been established, and take various measures to balance the interests of various internal plates and ease the difficulties of oil refining enterprises.

“In view of the changes in the Middle East situation in North Africa, international oil prices are likely to record new heights this year. Therefore, timely adjustments to the interests of the two major oil companies in various sectors will have enormous benefits for the central government in introducing imported inflationary pressures caused by the surge in international crude oil prices. Zhong Jian said finally.