Academy of Sciences: China's export growth in 2010 will be more than 15%
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Institute of Finance, Economics and Trade Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, at the seminar on China's economic situation analysis and prediction jointly organized by the Economics Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the Social Science Literature Publishing House on December 7. When Changchun Changhong predicted China's foreign trade situation, he pointed out that China's foreign trade will show a moderate growth trend next year, and the total volume of import and export trade will return to the level close to 2008.
CPI rose less than 3% without significant inflation
The Blue Book predicts that China's GDP growth rate will reach 8.3% in 2009, which can achieve the "guarantee eight" economic growth target. If the world financial crisis in 2010 does not further deteriorate seriously, and there are no large-scale serious natural disasters and other major problems in China, the GDP growth rate will steadily rise to a growth level of around 9%.
Dr. Zhang Tao from the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that the problem that China may face in 2010 is the pressure of inflation expectations. From the demand level, the current supply and demand pattern of insufficient demand has not changed, so there will be no obvious inflation in the near future.
The Blue Book analysis pointed out that, first of all, asset prices will not rise sharply. The accumulated demand for rigid home purchases has been released in 2009, and speculative investment demand for home purchases has been under control. It is expected that house prices will not rise rapidly and stock prices will not rise sharply.
Second, commodity prices are generally stable. Constrained by the relationship between supply and demand, food prices are not expected to rise significantly in 2010; industrial consumer goods production capacity is strong, even if demand (such as cars) grows fast, it can guarantee supply, and prices are not expected to rise sharply; domestic production of industrial production materials The ability is too large, and the demand growth is expected to be generally stable, so the price will not rise sharply. Under the pattern that the economy of developed countries continues to fluctuate and adjust, China's economic growth momentum shifts from the government to the market, and the growth of economic growth and stability is improved, the Blue Book predicts that China's economy is expected to show relatively moderate growth and low price rise in 2010. situation. Under the background of steady growth in demand and sufficient production and supply capacity, it is expected that there will be no obvious inflation in China's economy in 2010, and the CPI will increase by less than 3%.
Moderate growth in foreign trade increased by more than 15%
The Blue Book pointed out that China's foreign trade in the first eight months of this year showed the following characteristics: First, the monthly export volume of goods in July and August 2009 recovered to more than 100 billion US dollars; Second, the bilateral trade order changed, and the ASEAN market position rose. Third, the export of low-tech labor-intensive products has the ability to withstand the risk of falling market demand; Fourth, the price of imported goods falls more than the volume, which is a good time to import reserve resources; Fifth, there is no big change in the international division of labor, transnational The company's leading international trade still dominates the mainstream; sixth, the export tax rebate has reached its limit, and the space for manoeuvre to increase its policy intensity is already small; seventh, the international trade protectionism is on the rise, and China's export trade frequently encounters trade remedy investigations.
Looking ahead to the economic outlook for 2010, the global economic recovery is still very fragile and unstable, and the economies of various countries are mainly driven by policy stimulus and government investment. Unprecedented unemployment and overcapacity in developed countries have also increased future uncertainty. At least in the next two years, the world economy will show a low growth rate. Therefore, the growth of China's foreign trade is unlikely to pin the hope on the demand of developed economies, and the domestic policy environment is more important in a certain sense. Measures such as export tax rebates, RMB exchange rate levels, trade financing and export credit guarantees will determine the prospects for China's foreign trade in 2010.
The Blue Book predicts that if the domestic policy environment is favorable, foreign trade enterprises will further adapt to the new environment and make new progress in developing emerging markets. China's foreign trade, especially export trade, will also rebound. If China's total import and export trade in 2009 is 2.2 trillion US dollars, it may increase by more than 10% in 2010 and return to the total trade level in 2008; export trade will also return to the level of 1.43 trillion US dollars in 2008, an increase of 15%. the above.
