Analysis of Economic Operation of China's Machinery Industry in the First Half of 2010
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1. The economic operation situation of the machinery industry in the first half of the year was generally good. Comprehensive high-speed growth of production and sales Industrial added value: The added value of machinery industry increased by 24.4% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, and the growth rate ranked first among all industries in the industry, 5.9 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the national industry during the same period of 18.5%.
Gross industrial output value: The total industrial output value of the machinery industry in the first five months of this year was 5.2854 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.93%, and the growth rate reached a new high in recent years. Among them: construction machinery, automobile growth rate is the highest, more than 50%; machine tools, basic parts, internal combustion engine second, about 40%; electrician, instrumentation, stationery, petrochemical general again, about 30%; agricultural machinery, food packaging machinery The heavy machine is low, 20%-25%.
Production and sales rate: The production and sales rate of machinery industry products in the first five months of this year was 97.63%, up 0.62 percentage points year-on-year; the output value of machinery industry in the first five months increased by 38.93% year-on-year, while the total value of "inventory" increased by 21.44% year-on-year. The growth rate of output value was 17 percentage points lower; the “production finished product†in “inventory†increased by only 8.74% year-on-year, which was 13 percentage points lower than the increase of “inventoryâ€. This group of figures shows that the product sales situation is good.
Product output: From January to May this year, among the 118 major products, 104 kinds of output increased year-on-year, accounting for 88%; 14 kinds fell, accounting for 12%. The products with reduced product output are mainly: agricultural machinery products such as large tractors and combine harvesters, power equipment such as transformers and hydropower equipment, and metallurgical machinery such as metal rolling mills.
Product price: Since the financial crisis, until November last year, the price index of mechanical products has been on a downward trend; but since November last year, the price index of mechanical products has rebounded and has continued this month-on-month trend this year.
2. The operating efficiency has been significantly improved. From January to May this year, the machinery industry:
The profit was 353.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.13%; among them: the highest growth rate of automobiles and engineering machinery was over 110%; the machine tools, instruments, stationery, basic parts and internal combustion engines were second, about 80%; electricians, heavy mines, Petrochemical GM once again, about 40%; agricultural machinery, food packaging machinery is lower, but also reached more than 25%.
The total tax revenue was 174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.88%;
The profit rate of main business income was 6.94%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, reaching the highest level in history;
The company's loss side decreased by 5.12% year-on-year;
The loss of loss-making enterprises decreased by 32.69% year-on-year.
3. Technological progress and structural adjustment continue to make progress (1) New product research and development tends to be active. From January to May this year, the machinery industry completed the output value of new products by 104.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.24%, which was significantly faster than the industrial output value of 38.93% in the same period. Speed ​​up.
(2) The pace of independent innovation of key components and special high-quality raw materials has accelerated the pace of independent innovation of key components and special high-quality raw materials that have been subject to imports for a long time. For example, North Heavy Industries has successfully developed a 36,000-ton vertical extruder. Large-diameter thick-walled seamless steel tubes urgently needed for supercritical boilers; high-quality cold-rolled oriented silicon steel sheets developed by Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. have begun to be expanded in the production of large-scale domestic transformers; Yixing Enterprise and Baosteel have jointly developed large-scale thermal power and nuclear power equipment. The U-shaped tube that is urgently needed, Xidian Company and TBEA have built a high-level AC-DC high-voltage insulating casing coil production line, and Shanghai Huaming 500,000-volt transformer tap-changer has passed three appraisals recently. Daquan Group The frequency conversion control system required for large-scale direct-drive wind power equipment has been successfully developed, and the natural gas long-distance pipeline has made breakthroughs in the localization of large-scale valves; and so on, the long-term exposure of these products to imports is about to change.
(3) State-owned enterprises, large enterprises, and central and western regions showed good development momentum in January-May (see the attached table below, the total output value in the table: 100 million yuan)
State-owned enterprises - private enterprises - three capitals Total output value: 13106-27315-11145
Year-on-year growth: 43.86%-37.14%-38.31%
Large enterprises - medium-sized enterprises - small enterprises Total output value: 14953-15301-22600
Year-on-year growth: 42.29%-32.31%-41.52%
Eastern Region - Central Region - Western Region Total Output Value: 36997-10493-5363
Year-on-year growth: 36.59%-48.16%-38.42%
Second, the growth rate is falling month by month, and it is necessary to enhance the sense of urgency. Although the growth rate in the first half of the year was high, it was on a monthly basis.
The high growth rate in the first half of the year was closely related to the low base in the same period last year. With the rapid increase in the base number in the second quarter of last year, the monthly growth rate has shown a continuous decline.
From the trend of the year-on-year growth rate of output value, the machinery industry has dropped by 2 percentage points per month. According to this trend, the annual growth rate may fall to 20%-25%.
Judging from the trend of profit growth, the growth rate of January-February was 145% lower than that of January-February.
The growth rate of the automobile industry is the most obvious: the growth rate of the automobile industry in January-February is 81.61%, and it is down to 54.16% in January-May, and the growth rate has dropped by 27%. The growth rate of profits in January-February is 382.73%, from 1-5 months to 144.00%, the growth rate dropped by 238 percentage points.
2. Although there has been a recovery in exports, there is great uncertainty. From January to May, the accumulated machinery industry exports earned US$95.6 billion, an increase of 29.70% year-on-year. Despite the high growth rate, it is still a recovery growth. The monthly average foreign exchange earning of less than 20 billion U.S. dollars in January-April was far below the monthly average of 22 billion U.S. dollars in the second quarter of 2008 before the financial crisis. Although the export volume in May increased to 22.3 billion U.S. dollars, the shadow of the European debt crisis has not been scattered. Under the general situation of regaining the upward trend of the RMB exchange rate, it is difficult to predict whether the trend of May will continue in the future.
3. The growth rate of imports is much higher than that of exports. This year, it is possible to reproduce the deficit. From January to May, the cumulative import of machinery industry imports was 94.9 billion US dollars, up 50.88% year-on-year. This growth rate is much higher than the growth rate of 29.70% in the same period. In May, the year-on-year growth rate of exports soared to 45.64%, but imports increased by 57.06% over the same period, which was faster than exports. We are very worried that this year, the machinery industry may realize the basic balance of import and export trade in 2006, and then the trade surplus will increase rapidly year by year, and then reproduce the deficit.
4. It is my high-end equipment independent innovation has been strongly criticized by international competitors. In recent years, under the guidance of national policies, a number of domestic key enterprises have increased their independent innovation in high-end equipment products, and have made gratifying progress. However, this has caused uneasiness among international competing partners. After they have made great efforts to achieve the progress of independent innovation, they immediately turned into a sharp price cut and tried to compete with users for the purpose of blocking the pace of my upgrade.
5. The growth rate of fixed assets investment has slowed down considerably. From January to May this year, the machinery industry has completed a fixed asset investment of 547.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.35%, far lower than the growth rate of 40% in previous years. It shows that after the high-speed growth of fixed assets investment in the machinery industry has continued for six years since 2004, the investment growth rate has begun to show an inflection point. The growth of fixed asset investment has slowed down, and the demand for mechanical products will definitely cool down.
6. The impact on the rise of the exchange rate should not be underestimated. The rise in the exchange rate will not only weaken the competitiveness of the international market of our mechanical products, but also worry that it will stimulate imports. The difficulties of independent innovation in the export of low-end mechanical products and high-end products will increase, and the pressure on the machinery industry will be double.
In short, although the economic operation data of the machinery industry in the first half of this year is very "bright", it still needs to remain very calm. Facing the complicated and ever-changing domestic and international economic environment, the whole industry should be more worried and more prepared.
Third, look forward to the year, cautiously optimistic 1. The ultra-high-speed growth in the first half of the year has laid a good foundation for achieving rapid growth throughout the year. The calculation of the annual output value: the total industrial output value of the first five months has reached 5.2854 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93% over the same period of the previous year; The output value has been equivalent to 56% of the annual output value of the previous year; since this year, the monthly output value has risen month by month, and has been above 1 trillion yuan in the past three months. Even if this level is not maintained in the next few months, the annual output value will not increase. It will also exceed 12 trillion yuan, which will increase by 12% from the level of 10.7 trillion yuan in the previous year; and the law for many years is higher than the first half of the second half of the year, so the total industrial output value this year will definitely be higher than 12%. .
The calculation of the profit for the whole year: the accumulated profit in the first five months was 353.6 billion yuan, with an average monthly average of 70.7 billion yuan; and the profit from January to November last year was 581.6 billion yuan, with an average monthly income of 53 billion yuan; assuming monthly average in the second half of this year Realizing the decline in profits to last year's level, the profit from January to November this year can be about 670 billion yuan, an increase of more than 15% over last year; if the fall in the second half is relatively flat, the monthly average profit is about 60 billion yuan, then this year 1-11 The monthly profit can reach 710 billion yuan, which is more than 20% higher than last year.
2. At present, most enterprises have more orders, which can basically meet the production requirements of this year. According to a survey of 161 key enterprises, most companies believe that the growth rate will fall in the second half of the year; but overall, the ordering situation is significantly better than last year, 161 The key orders of the enterprises in the first five months of the year increased by 39.07%, which seems to basically guarantee the normal production needs this year.
3. The macro policy orientation is conducive to the uncertain growth of the recent economic situation in the future (European debt crisis risk, the domestic real estate industry is obviously cooling down, the investment growth rate is falling, the market autonomy demand bank loan deceleration, the automobile market cooling, the export tax rebate policy adjustment, the exchange rate The rise, etc., has drawn the attention of all parties concerned. Macroeconomic policies are enhancing flexibility and pertinence in order to maintain stable and rapid economic development, which will help the machinery industry achieve steady growth in the second half of the year.
In summary, we make the following inferences about the annual trend of the machinery industry:
1. In the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate will continue to fall month by month. Although the growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry seems to be abnormally high at the beginning of this year, it is under the influence of many increasingly difficult factors and the comparison of the base in the second half of last year. The ultra-high-speed growth at the beginning of the year is difficult to sustain, and the downward trend from the second quarter will continue in the future. The annual growth rate curve will be high, low, and monthly.
2. Second, the probability of a sharp decline or negative growth in the growth rate in the second half of the year is small. Although the year-on-year growth rate of major economic indicators in the second half of the year will continue to fall month by month, the fundamentals of the overall situation of the machinery industry and the macro economy are obviously better than the previous year. At the same time, the relevant parties attach great importance to the looming risks in economic operations and have responded sensitively to the regulation and control policies. Therefore, we believe that there is little chance of a sharp decline or even negative growth in the economic operation of the machinery industry in the second half of the year.
3. It is expected that the year-on-year growth is double-digit growth compared to the previous year. In view of the rapid growth in the first half of the year, it has laid a good foundation for achieving rapid growth throughout the year, and the probability of a sharp decline in the second half of the year is not large, so despite the future growth rate It will fall back month by month, but the machinery industry has achieved double-digit growth this year compared to the previous year.
We expect this year's machinery industry: production and sales growth rate of up to 20%; profit growth rate of up to 20%; export earnings growth rate of up to 15%.
Fourth, several suggestions It is necessary to withstand the unreasonable pressure of some developed countries and firmly guide key projects to purchase high-end equipment that I independently innovate. It is recommended that foreign investors who are maliciously lowering prices, arbitrarily compete with me for orders, and attack the high-end equipment independent innovation process, resolutely use anti-dumping measures to counter.
2. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", we will increase support for independent innovation of high-end equipment. The definition of "high-end equipment" should not be simply based on whether there is "intelligence" to make trade-offs. It is recommended that key equipments that are urgently needed for key projects, have high technical difficulty, and are heavily dependent on imports should be included in "high-end equipment" to support them.
3. The rise of the RMB exchange rate should not be too fast. As far as the machinery industry is concerned, most products have little profit margin for export. Therefore, it is recommended that the appreciation rate of the RMB should not be too fast, and the appreciation should not be too high. If the appreciation of the renminbi is relatively high, it is recommended that the state provide reasonable compensation for the export of complete sets of equipment with a long project execution period.
4. Increase the scale of power grid investment and protect the backbone of equipment manufacturing. Since the beginning of this year, due to insufficient investment in power grids, high-voltage power transmission and transformation equipment such as transformers and high-voltage switches have been over-competitive and the price has dipped. This is tantamount to suicide for the long-term development of equipment manufacturing companies. It is hoped that the country will speed up the examination and approval of power transmission and transformation projects, increase the scale of power grid construction, and restore the prices of related products to normal levels, so as to avoid the backbone enterprises of power transmission equipment manufacturing industry.