China's steel raw material price trend forecast in April

Recently, the domestic iron ore market as a whole has shown a steady operation trend, and some regions have retraced their prices, and the transaction has been slightly light. The trend of the imported ore market remained stable, and the enquiry increased, but the market transaction picked up. The domestic billet market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a rise or fall of around RMB 10-50/ton. The overall billet market was generally weakly consolidating, with some areas down, and the transaction was relatively light.  

Domestic raw material market situation in March

The domestic billet market was affected by the improvement of downstream transactions, and the domestic billet price rebounded slightly. As of March 27, the mainstream average prices of Q235 and 20MnSi in 10 major domestic markets were 4,247 yuan/ton and 4,354 yuan/ton, respectively, up 15 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively from March 22. However, traders generally believe that the current billet price is still near the cost line, and the possibility of a sharp drop in prices is small, but whether the price can continue to rebound is still uncertain, and market demand will become the key to affect the price trend of steel billets in the later period.

In the domestic mining market, the domestic iron ore market price fluctuated slightly, and some private steel mills in the north raised the price; the billet market price continued to rise slightly, and the transaction was general; as of March 27, 66% of the iron powder wet base in Tangshan did not contain The tax ex-factory is 1040-1050 yuan/ton, a small increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the 66% iron fine powder dry basis of Yanxing Mining does not include tax 1285 yuan/ton. In Wu'an area, 64% iron fine powder wet base does not include tax 1020-1040 yuan / ton, Shanxi Daixian 64% iron fine powder wet base does not include tax price of 950 yuan / ton, some mines offer slightly higher.

In the imported ore market, the price of imported iron ore market has risen steadily. The spot market of imported mines is stable, and some merchants raise their prices. The import mine futures market has gradually stabilized and the number of enquiries has increased. As of March 27, the latest imported iron ore spot price of Indian coarse powder (63.5% grade) mainstream price is 1260-1280 yuan / ton, Brazil powder mine (65% grade) price is 1330-1350 yuan / ton, Australian powder The price of the mine (62% grade) is 1220-1250 yuan / ton.

Analysis of raw material price trend in April

At present, there are two kinds of sounds in the raw material market. Some people think that the price of raw materials in April, especially the price of iron ore, will gradually rise under the gradual increase of steel mill purchases. Some people say that steel demand in April is still difficult to pick up. Coupled with the recent capital shortage, the business mentality is pessimistic, the raw material price will be reduced by a certain extent.

Reasons for the market to rise:

1. The steel mills have recently increased their enquiries and their purchasing intentions have increased. Southern high-grade printing powder futures have been sold, indicating that the North and South markets basically recognize the current price.

2, the mine said that the current low-grade goods are better. Domestic customers are mostly considering. The market is picking up.

3, high grade goods and demand for improvement.

4. Steel prices have improved this week, and futures prices have risen.

Reasons for the market to be flatly lowered:

1. There is not much improvement in demand, and steel mills are not in stock.

2. The factory has started to enquire, and some steel mills are also worried about rising in late March.

3. The funds are tight and the steel inventories are still very large. It is expected that the market will stabilize in early April.

4. The market quotation was slightly raised today, and the transaction was in place. The shortage of goods is the basis for the rise. Steel mills should take some goods next week, but subject to high steel/ore stocks, the rebound is limited. Overall flat.

The recent terminal release is generally weaker than in previous years, but the seasonal warming trend of demand in April is still clear, and May will enter the first steel consumption season in the year, so the demand for next month should still be expected. It seems that the demand release rhythm and release intensity, steel prices in April are also expected to usher in a rebound.

In general, the real market demand has not yet been truly released, steel prices will strive to maintain stability, even if there is price fluctuations, it will be automatically adjusted on the market, the range will not be too large, until after the Qingming in April may be staged. Rebound, but from the macro-control policies and the general environment, steel prices can not escape the downward channel, but depending on the release of demand in April, it is estimated that raw material prices will appear stable and weak, and the billet price is expected to be 0~50 yuan. / ton of downward adjustment, while domestic mines and imported mines will be around the current price, the fluctuations will not be too large.