Face the "false logic" of iron ore price hikes
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In the passive environment of the current “minimum of judgments†in the iron ore market, the price rise and fall of iron ore has been gradually detached from the supply-demand relationship. Instead, market speculation and monopoly pricing have boosted prices. Facing the essential logic of iron ore price hikes has become a prerequisite for solving the complex issue of China's iron ore trade imbalance.
The 2011 Davos Forum opens this year's China's accession to the WTO Ten years into the topic of Chongqing's 10-level income tax building construction** Delayed water conservancy welcomes the gold decade 2010 Global 205 million people unemployed Chinese government bonds will be sold to individuals in Macau for the first time Accused of stealing shares from family members for the first time. Face-to-face exchanges with petitioners who came to Beijing for the first time: Xu Xiaoyu: The two main reasons for the difficulties in the Spring Festival The logic of the three major miners has always believed that “iron ore prices are entirely determined by market supply and demand, and China’s demand The continuous and substantial increase in prices has pushed up prices," said the basis for the price rise of iron ore suppliers. However, speaking with data, this is obviously untenable.
The domestic imports of iron ore in the fourth, fifth and sixth months of 2010 were 55.33 million tons, 51.90 million tons and 47.17 million tons, respectively, a decrease of 6.24%, 6.22%, and 9.11% compared with the previous period; and during the same period, iron ore The average import price of stone is US$111, US$128 and US$140 per ton respectively, up 9.63%, 15.51%, and 8.82% respectively from the previous quarter; China’s demand decreased month-on-month, but the market price in the same period has increased significantly.
In 2010, the total amount of iron ore imported by China was 619 million tons, which was approximately 9 million tons less than in 2009. China's demand decreased, but the annual purchase price of iron ore increased by 28.7 billion US dollars, from 50.2 billion US dollars in 2009. Increased to 78.9 billion U.S. dollars. The import cost of iron ore in China increased by 57.17% year-on-year, which is in contrast with the decrease in actual import demand. Considering the fact that the depreciation of the US dollar against the United States is limited, it can be seen that the supply and demand relationship has not played a big role in the trend of iron ore prices. .
From the perspective of supply, iron ore supply tends to ease in 2010, rather than tighter. On January 18, 2011, Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest iron ore supplier, announced that its iron ore production in the fourth quarter of 2010 reached 65 million tons and its annual output in 2010 reached 239 million tons, both of which are It set a record for the company's history. BHP Billiton also said that in the fourth quarter of 2010, iron ore production rose by 4% to 33.7 million tons. In addition, the world’s largest supplier of iron ore, Brazil’s Vale, and Australia’s fourth-largest iron ore supplier, Australia’s FMG, all said that they are increasing production last year and the scale of expansion will be huge in the coming years.
On the one hand, iron ore suppliers are increasing production. On the other hand, China, which accounts for more than 50% of the global demand for iron ore, is reducing its import demand. Why is the price of iron ore still increasing substantially? The price rise of iron ore due to demand is obviously a set of "false logic."
According to my steel network monitoring, as of January 24, the average price of Φ20mmHRB335 rebar in 25 major cities nationwide was 4,826 yuan/ton, and continued to rise. The iron and steel industry downstream of iron ore is obviously suffering from it. The continuous rise in steel prices has not brought any benefit to the steel industry.
Since the second half of last year, steel prices have shown no direction, iron ore prices have determined steel prices, and unreasonably high ore prices have pushed up steel prices, resulting in a positive interaction between rising steel prices and rising iron ore prices. The iron ore speculation, market sentiment, and psychological expectations of market price inflation have been debilitating, and the cost of steel prices has continued to rise at the bottom of this vicious circle of mutual push-ups.
If this "false logic" continues to be maintained, in 2011 and in the following years, the Chinese steel industry will still only work for iron ore suppliers. According to the data of China Steel Association, the sales margin of steel companies in 2010 was only 3.5%, and the investment value of steel plates would be greatly reduced.