Heavy machine tool demand slows down
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From January to September 2009, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 27.78 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 65%. From January to October, the national total shipbuilding enterprises completed a total industrial output value of 443.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, an increase of 29.7 percentage points; The export delivery value was 205.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, an increase of 43.9 percentage points.
Although in 2009 the shipbuilding industry conscientiously implemented the central government's policy of coping with the financial crisis to promote stable economic development, various economic indicators maintained steady growth. However, due to the sharp shrinking demand in the global shipping market, the production and operation environment of shipbuilding enterprises remained as a whole. Not obviously improved, mainly in the following aspects. First, the new orders for ships were 16.92 million DWT, a year-on-year decrease of 70%. Second, the difficulty of delivery continues to spread. In 2009, 18% of the ships that should be completed in 2009 were delayed due to the shipowner’s reasons. It is required to reduce the contract price. It is also very common to modify the ship type, and it will be paid after 2010. Forward orders for goods account for 30%, and the risk of uncertainty is higher. Third, the ship price continued to decline, and the ship market in the reversed supply and demand relationship continued its downward trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The Clarkson new ship price comprehensively pointed out that it had fallen to 142 points at the end of September, which was the highest since 190 points in August last year. A drop of 48 points, the main ship type price fell by more than 30%, and individual ship types even exceeded 40%.
Marine equipment will become the focus of machine tool consumption The ship industry is a technology-intensive, capital-intensive and labor-intensive industry. In the past 10 years, China's shipbuilding industry has fully utilized China's labor cost comparative advantage and achieved rapid development. The proportion in the global market is rising significantly, and China has become one of the important shipbuilding centers in the world. Although China's shipbuilding volume has already ranked in the forefront of the world, the shipbuilding technology is different from the foreign advanced level by more than 10 years. In particular, the ship's supporting capacity is insufficient, and the key supporting parts are imported. This has become the bottleneck for the development of China's shipbuilding industry. Nearly 80% of the key equipment for ships needs to be imported, while the self-sufficiency rate of equipment in Japan, South Korea and other shipbuilding countries is above 90%. It is an urgent task for China's shipbuilding industry to improve the manufacturing capacity of marine auxiliary equipment and key components and reduce imports to improve production efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs.
According to the "Shipbuilding Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", in the face of severe production and business environment, China's shipbuilding industry will further increase the pace and intensity of industrial restructuring and product optimization and upgrading, focusing on the development of high-tech value-added ships, marine engineering equipment, Improve the supporting capacity of marine equipment and marine low-speed diesel engines. Among them, marine supporting equipment and marine low-speed diesel engines will become the focus of investment, and also the main selling point of the machine tool market in the shipbuilding industry in the next few years.
Marine equipment refers to power equipment, deck machinery, ship boilers and marine electrical equipment. The power unit includes intelligent diesel engine, energy-saving and environment-friendly medium and low speed diesel engine, LNG marine dual fuel engine, ship shafting (reduction box, bearing, intermediate transmission shaft) super large propeller and large-scale high-efficiency water jet propulsion device. Deck machinery includes rudder equipment, anchor equipment, mooring equipment, and ship lifting machinery. Marine electrical equipment includes high-power medium and high voltage generators and power supply equipment. In addition, there are ship boilers, refrigeration and air conditioning units, and marine pumps and valves.
Marine equipment has a very large market development space. According to analysts, if the delivery target for 2010 can be achieved, the global civilian ship market capacity will reach 140 billion US dollars, according to the marine equipment accounted for 50% of the ship price, then the global market for marine equipment will reach 70 billion US dollars. . According to China's shipbuilding tonnage accounting for 35% of the world, China's marine equipment market will reach 24.5 billion US dollars. The development of China's marine auxiliary equipment has lagged behind the manufacturing capacity of the whole ship. The local loading rate of marine supporting equipment is less than 50%. In 2007, China's ship supporting equipment manufacturing enterprises completed the total industrial output value of 21.38 billion yuan, accounting for only the total output value of the shipbuilding industry. 8.3%. Taking diesel engines as an example, in 2007 China's marine low-speed diesel engines produced 3.09 million horsepower and imported 2.89 million horsepower, which is far from the target of 12 million horsepower in 2011. The output of medium-speed diesel engines is 930 and 470 are imported. 48% and 34%. The key parts of diesel engine such as marine deck machinery and marine crankshaft are about 50%, and the equipment gap of marine cabin equipment and ship communication and navigation automation system is larger.
Comprehensive various factors can be expected to develop marine supporting equipment, improve the shipping rate of domestic marine supporting equipment, and achieve the three-year mainstream ship type domestic equipment loading rate of more than 65% required for the three-year adjustment and revitalization plan, marine low-speed machine, medium The goal of meeting the domestic market satisfaction rate of auxiliary equipment such as speed machines and deck machinery to more than 80% will not only greatly improve the comprehensive strength of China's shipbuilding industry, but also greatly enhance the ability to withstand market risks. It can be expected that marine equipment will become the focus of the shipbuilding industry in the next few years.
From the perspective of fixed assets investment, the total industrial output value of the shipbuilding industry in 2006 was 172.2 billion yuan, and the investment in fixed assets was 19.96 billion yuan. In 2007, the total industrial output value was 2,570 yuan, and the fixed assets investment was about 30 billion yuan. In 2008, the total industrial output value was 414.3 billion yuan. Yuan, fixed assets investment of about 45 billion yuan. As the statistics of fixed assets investment in the shipbuilding industry are incomplete, the initial estimate is that the annual consumption of machine tools in the shipbuilding industry in 2008 is estimated to be between 5 billion and 6 billion yuan. In 2009, thanks to the national package to deal with the international financial crisis, fixed asset investment still increased by 55.5% from January to May. In the next three years, the shipbuilding industry will strictly implement the shipbuilding industry adjustment and revitalization plan and the medium and long-term development plan of the shipbuilding industry. Land, marine, environmental protection, finance and other relevant departments at all levels will no longer accept applications for new docks and slipway projects, and suspend approval. There are expansion projects for shipyards and shipyards. It can be predicted that the investment projects for capacity expansion from 2010 to 2012 will be strictly suppressed, while the marine supporting equipment, high-tech ships and offshore equipment are in line with the shipbuilding industry adjustment and revitalization plan and the medium- and long-term development plan of the shipbuilding industry. Investment will increase by more than 20% year by year.
Demand for heavy-duty machine tools will slow down. Faced with the current severe situation in the shipbuilding industry, the demand for heavy-duty metal forming equipment and welding equipment required to build the three major ship types is not expected to increase dramatically. However, there will be demand for special and special processing machines required for the manufacture of offshore engineering equipment, which is the growth point of heavy machine tools.
The main key components of marine auxiliary equipment, such as high-power low-speed diesel engines, crankshafts, large-scale marine propellers, etc., have been planned, and the investment is basically in place. The orders for heavy-duty and super-heavy metal processing machines are basically completed, so in the next few years, The growth rate of heavy-duty and ultra-heavy metal processing demand will slow down, while the demand for large, medium and general-purpose CNC machine tools will maintain a certain growth trend.
As the core components of the ship, the key components of the marine diesel engine mainly include the base, frame, cylinder block, connecting rod, cylinder head, cylinder liner, piston, camshaft and cam assembly, bearing bush, intake and exhaust valve, air cooler, Oil pump nozzles, etc. According to the survey of the association, the current domestic low-speed diesel engine has a maximum power of 49,680 hp, a captain of 15.6 m, a height of 12.4 m, a bore of 900 mm, a crankshaft weight of 21 tons and a self-weight of 1,253 tons. The planned development of maximum power will reach 100,000 hp, and the machining accuracy is PA6BV-280 (7140 kW) marine diesel engine. For example, except for the highest machining accuracy of the piston, IT4, the highest machining accuracy of the cylinder block, IT5~6, camshaft, cylinder head and cylinder liner The highest machining accuracy required for components is IT6.
The main processing equipments for medium and low speed diesel engine mounts and frames are CNC gantry boring and milling machines and CNC vertical lathes; the main processing equipment for cylinder block (body) is CNC gantry boring and milling machine and gantry machining center. The specifications are mostly gantry width 2~5m. , the maximum does not exceed 8m, the positioning accuracy and repeat positioning accuracy requirements are not more than 0.016/1000mm and 0.01mm respectively; the main processing equipment of the cylinder head has horizontal machining center, vertical machining center and vertical turning and milling center, horizontal processing The center specifications are mostly in demand of 500, 630, 800 specifications. The 630 horizontal machining center requires positioning accuracy X, Y, Z axis does not exceed 0.008 mm, and the repeat positioning accuracy does not exceed 0.004 mm; the main processing equipment for connecting rod and crank is CNC. Longmen boring and milling machine, large-scale CNC vertical car, heavy-duty CNC sleeper, vertical and horizontal machining center, etc.; the main processing equipment of camshaft includes camshaft milling machine and camshaft grinding machine.
Another core functional component of the ship—the main processing equipment for heavy-duty crankshafts—horizontal crankshaft lathes, vertical lathes, floor boring machines, portal milling machines, crankshaft milling machines, horizontal turning and milling centers, crankshaft grinders, etc. The low-speed machine crankshaft adopts the assembled structure, the crankshaft and the crank are processed in one piece, and after the hot assembly, the whole machining is required. The heavy-duty turning and milling composite machining center, the numerical control crank vertical lathe, the numerical control vertical lathe, the numerical control floor boring and milling machine and the hot-loading fine are required. Equipment for processing heavy-duty crankshaft cyclone machining centers.
The main processing equipment for large marine propellers includes five-axis CNC milling machine, five-axis CNC vertical milling machine and seven-axis five-link turning and milling machining center. This kind of equipment is one of the iconic products to measure the level of machine tool manufacturing in a country. At present, the world's largest processing diameter of the propeller processing equipment is developed by Korea, with a diameter of 11m, followed by CNC machine tools with a diameter of 10.4m produced in Germany and Japan. The maximum processing diameter of the propeller processing equipment produced in China is only 9m. With the development of large-scale ships in China, the demand for seven-axis five-link CNC machine milling machines with a diameter of 11m propellers will also appear. Modern large ships require higher propulsion efficiency and lower noise, so higher requirements are placed on the machining accuracy and surface roughness of key parts such as propellers. In addition, due to the complexity and particularity of the blade surface machining, there are new requirements for the function and processing performance of the machine tool. For example, to overcome the influence of excessive tympanic torque on the life of the machine during large-scale propeller machining; the realization of anti-interference collision function of seven-axis five-link CNC milling machine; the rapid calculation of machining allowance based on three-dimensional digital model, measuring point planning and measuring trajectory Automated generation and online quality assessment functions are still difficult problems for shipbuilding-specific machine tools.