Prospects for the new energy industry are still vast

Although the strong earthquake that took place on March 11 has been more than a month, the Japanese nuclear accident caused by it has continued to ferment. On April 12, Japan upgraded the level of its nuclear leakage accident to the highest level. On the 17th, Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. announced for the first time the accident handling schedule, and planned to control the nuclear leakage within 6 to 9 months. In spite of this, the market remains skeptical about the risk of nuclear accidents in Japan. On the 18th, the stocks of multinational nuclear power companies including Japan were still under heavy pressure. On the contrary, traditional fossil fuels, including crude oil and coal, were still under pressure. Company stocks are favored. What impact and changes will the Japanese nuclear accident have on the global energy market? Su Jie, an economic researcher of the Development and Planning Department of BOC Hong Kong, who was interviewed by the reporter, said that the nuclear accident caused by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan had brought changes to the development of the global energy market. In the short term, traditional fossil fuels represented by petroleum, coal, and natural gas face pressures of tight supply and rising prices. However, in the medium and long term, due to the depletion of traditional energy sources and the destructive effect on the environment and climate, new energy sources still There is much room for development.

Global nuclear energy development may slow down Recently, due to Japan’s nuclear leakage accident, the global “nuclear panic” sentiment has continued to rise, and the international nuclear energy use has been affected far more than Japan’s domestic and global nuclear power-related industries. Some even experienced a big drop. For example, General Electric, which designs all six reactors for the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and Areva share price, a Japanese nuclear reactor supplier, as well as share prices of many major global suppliers have experienced a sharp decline. Although Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. announced on the 17th the timetable for the containment of nuclear leaks, some analysts believe that under the blowout of nuclear leakage, Japan's Tokyo Electric Power Company may be insolvent and be forced into bankruptcy proceedings.

What is even more serious is that with the detection of trace amounts of radioactive substances in air, clouds, or crops in various countries around the world, concerns and suspicions about nuclear energy are spreading globally. There are indications that many countries have been forced to make adjustments to their nuclear power policies, driven by the anti-nuclear sounds of the people. In the wake of the nuclear accident in Japan, the German government announced that it would suspend the extension of the use of expired nuclear power plants for three months, shut down seven nuclear power stations and conduct safety inspections on 143 nuclear power stations. Its Minister of Environment further stated that it will phase out nuclear energy by 2020. In addition, Switzerland has also recently announced that it will stop reviewing the application for the construction of nuclear power facilities and carry out safety inspections in advance for all nuclear power stations in the country.

“The overall pace of global nuclear power development is bound to slow down.” Su Jie said that historical experience shows that since December 20, 1951, when the United States opened the door to the peaceful use of nuclear energy by mankind, every major safety accident has resulted in the stagnation of nuclear power development. Shrinking. Due to the fact that the intensity of reaction of governments and peoples to the nuclear accident far exceeds expectations, the development of nuclear energy in the future will face more stringent safety inspections and other issues, and its growth rate is bound to slow down.

The recovery of traditional energy demand shows that since the outbreak of Japan’s nuclear leakage, the existing main energy (non-renewable energy) will be the biggest beneficiary after the nuclear crisis. Taking oil as an example, the economic recovery has led to a rebound in overall international demand, a slowdown in the global use of nuclear energy, Japan’s renewed oil consumption demand, continued geopolitical crisis in oil-producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and an increase in financial attributes resulting from international capital speculation. Under the circumstances, international oil prices have continued to rise. The average price of the OPEC-OPEC market monitoring crude oil package reached a two-and-a-half year high of US$117.39 per barrel earlier this month.

“As the global economic recovery is becoming more and more stable, the huge energy gap caused by the slowdown in the use of nuclear energy will lead to tighter supply and demand in the international energy market in the short term.” Su Jie stated that traditional energy led by oil, coal, and natural gas is bound to continue Face the pressure of rising demand and rising prices. The reason for this is that new energy development is still difficult to become the mainstream of the market in the short term; on the other hand, the dependence of the global economy on traditional fossil fuels will also inevitably increase the pressure on prices. Countries using the purchase of oil fields, oil companies, increased oil inventories and other economic or even non-economic means to snap up energy, adding to the pressure of geopolitics and regional conflicts. The International Monetary Organization also pointed out in the latest report on the economy (310358, **) that the global oil market has entered an increasingly scarce era.

New Energy Accelerates Development According to the forecast issued by the International Energy Agency, in the context of the global challenge of coping with climate change and energy security, the world's disposable energy demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1.2% from 2008 to 2035, which is lower than before. Average annual rate of 2% in 27 years. Among them, the demand for nuclear power and other renewable energy sources including hydropower and wind power will increase compared with the slowdown in oil and coal demand. There are other indications that after the outbreak of Japan’s nuclear accident, countries such as France and the United Kingdom have also reviewed their plans for nuclear power development and strengthened their subsidies for the solar and wind energy industries.

"Although the nuclear accident in Japan will cause new energy development to be hindered in the short term," Su Jie said, but given the depletion of traditional fossil fuels and the growing destructiveness of the environment, the increase in the share of non-fossil energy is an inevitable requirement for human social development. He believes that the nuclear accident in Japan will stimulate the world to increase R&D investment in safer new energy. In the long term, the global energy market will eventually form a trend of shifting traditional energy and new energy. The new energy industry has a long-term The broad space for development.