31 days ** price market analysis

On September 1, the domestic ** market rebounded, ranking first among chemical products. The rising trend in the coastal areas is obvious, and prices in the inland areas have been raised in a narrow range. Compared with the previous week, the ex-factory price of Zhejiang ** rose by 300-500 yuan (t price, the same below), the price of Henan ** increased by 100-200 yuan, and that of Ningxia ** increased by 50-100 yuan. The author analyzed that there are three main reasons for this round of ** market recovery.

First, the downstream market for chlorine-consuming products improved and demand increased. The demand for chlorinated fertilizers increased, and the pace of downstream purchases accelerated. The demand for chlorinated paraffins was strong during the peak season, and the price increased significantly. The price of chloroparaffin-52 rose to 8,000 yuan in some areas; the production of chloroacetic acid improved and the load increased. The price continues to rise to 4500 to 4,600 yuan. In addition, the consumption of chlorine by ADC foaming agents, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, methane chloride, etc. is also better driven by the overall market, which pushes prices higher to a certain extent.

The second is that the load of chloralkali is not high and the output of ** is relatively low. Due to the low prices of domestic ** and caustic soda in the early stage and the high sales pressure, combined with the persistent high temperatures in some regions in the near future, due to local restrictions on electricity consumption and energy conservation and emission reduction, caustic soda enterprises in East China and North China started to reduce their workload, and chlor-alkali enterprises in eastern China started construction. The load is only about 60%. As the output of ** has dropped significantly, the supply of goods in the market has decreased from the previous period.

Third, the flow of goods between regions is affected by the inconvenience of transportation. Affected by the weather and natural disasters, coupled with the large number of seasonal shipments of fruits and melons in the Xinjiang region, the transportation capacity in the northwestern region has been strained, and the low-cost regions have been moving eastwards and southwards.

From the market analysis, the favorable negative factors of the ** market coexist. Good news: First, the short-term chloro-alkali load will not rise significantly. Affected by high-temperature power cuts and energy conservation and emission reduction, the chlor-alkali production load in some parts of the country will be compressed again, and it will continue to decline. And low-load production unit consumption increased, coupled with the need for downstream caustic soda, the price is generally stable, ** quoted a significant increase in intentions. The second is raw material price support. In recent days, the main producing areas in Haiyan continued to rain, and the output of dioxins salt was lower than last year. The ex-factory price of factory prices of salt enterprises increased gradually, and the price of some of the users of sea salt enterprises for two alkali customers had been raised by 20 yuan in September. Third, the recovery of many downstream demand for chlorine products, the gradual improvement of downstream demand, and PVC rebounded in the crude oil and led by higher prices, the market is getting better. In respect of bearishness, due to insufficient shipments of calcium carbide and price increase, the start-up load of PVC equipment in some enterprises was reduced, and the absorption capacity of ** was weakened. Pesticides, papermaking and other downstream industries are still in the off-season. The overall demand for ** has not yet reached a breakthrough in volume.

In a comprehensive view, domestic buoyant market factors have a slight upper hand, and low-end prices in some regions still have room for upward movement. It is expected that the ** market outlook will remain stable, and local market prices will continue to rise, but the room for continued rise will not be too big. The rise time will not last long.